Trinamool wins rural Bengal

But local polls may not be an ideal predictor for 2014

The ruling Trinamool Congress has won a resounding victory in the panchayat elections in West Bengal. It won 12 of 17 districts in south Bengal. As opposed to this, it has been routed in three districts, all in the north of the state. The Left Front swept Jalpaiguri, whereas the Congress and the Left Front put up an equal showing in two - Murshidabad and Malda. These results confirm the dramatic reversal of the long-term political topography of the state where the Left had held undisputed sway over the countryside. Early signs of a reversal came in the last panchayat elections in 2008 - the Left Front won handsomely, but storm clouds were clearly visible in that its results were poorer than those in the polls held five years earlier. The Nandigram agitation and the attempt to suppress it occurred in 2007, a year before the previous panchayat polls, and it helped the Trinamool gain power. This appears to be the wind in its sails even now.

Yet there are important nuances to this story. Contrary to the earlier electoral contests, this time there was no alliance between the Trinamool Congress and the Congress, which resulted in mostly genuine three-way contests. If the Congress and the Left were to see eye to eye with each other again, the political scene in the state could undergo a dramatic change very quickly. Another point to note is that the good showing of the Congress in the two north Bengal districts of Murshidabad and Malda indicates that it can still gain a significant number of votes from Muslims. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's attempt to woo these voters by, among other things, making a big issue over the polls being held during Ramzan has not worked too well. How many Muslims will vote for the Trinamool Congress in the parliamentary elections - and how that will affect its choice in the post-election coalition scenario - remains an open question. So it may not be wise to simply extrapolate these results to try and guess the outcome of the 2014 elections.

It should also not be forgotten that these polls reflect the rural mood. The urban mood in West Bengal, which has a 30 per cent urban population, is quite another matter and indications are that the poor administrative performance of the state government so far has begun to take a toll on the ruling party's support in urban areas. The Left Front began to lose support in urban areas long before it did so overall. So while the verdict of the panchayat polls is loud and clear, it may not tell us much about the state of things to come.