Xi's China syndromes: Projection of power takes centre stage in his plans

His Party Congress speech presages continuing global tensions. The need to strengthen intelligence networks and military infrastructure along India's disputed borders has never been more urgent

The Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress, held every five years, is a much-awaited event because it offers global political leaders and investors a read into policy directions for this opaque, authoritarian nation. As the world’s second-largest economy, China sets the agenda both for global economic growth and the tenor of geopolitics. The hints to be gleaned from General Secretary and President Xi Jinping’s inaugural speech of one hour and 45 minutes could scarcely be described as reassuring. Mr Xi, who has emerged as the most powerful leader in China since Mao Zedong by virtue of a ruthless elimination or silencing of all opposition and the creation of a comprehensive programme of thought control and surveillance, is set to win an unprecedented third term as general secretary at the week-long Congress. His speech to over 2,000 selected party delegates made all the right noises about reform and growth but the substance pointed to a hardening of the positions that he had adopted over the past two years, none of which suggested that China was on the path to faster growth or less aggressive nationalist policies.

For one, Mr Xi did not explicitly back down from his “zero-Covid” policies — he described it as “an all-out people’s war” — which involved a stringent regime of mandatory mass testing, invasive surveillance, snap lockdowns, and quarantines since 2020. Though this campaign had admittedly brought down the Covid-19 numbers, three years of near-lockdown conditions have created uncharacteristic frissons of unrest throughout China and did much to stifle economic growth. Together with the enormous crisis in real estate, continuing Covid-19 restrictions point to stalling economic growth. This was borne out by a 2.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter contraction in the June quarter after the economy rose 1.4 per cent in the March quarter. The state officials claim that China will show a rebound in the September quarter, but the statistics office has delayed releasing this data, originally scheduled for Tuesday. Even so, independent economists do not anticipate China’s growth to touch the targeted 5.5 per cent set by the party. Massive investment in infrastructure with doubtful return on capital and a tightening of state control on private enterprise, especially in emerging digital technology, can be scarcely considered robust growth policies.

No less disquieting was Mr Xi’s explicit mention of “complete reunification” of China, which “must be realised and can without doubt be realised”. The import of this statement, which attracted the maximum applause, was clearly aimed at Taiwan, whose president rapidly responded by underlining the island-nation’s sovereign status. The wider geopolitical implication of this long-festering issue is the message it sends to the US, which has been the superpower protector of Taiwan’s independence. The broader significance of Mr Xi’s pronouncements underlines the decisive shift from the low-key pragmatism of his predecessors to an assertive projection of Chinese power and nationalism. This transition has important implications for India. The presence of a wounded veteran of the Galwan clash at the conference won much applause and a clip of the clash was also aired. The need to strengthen intelligence networks and military infrastructure along India’s disputed borders has never been more urgent.