Yes, it's Frankenstorm

The poster child for human-created extreme weather

The northeastern coast of the United States of America has a long history of hurricane- and storm-related warnings that eventually turn out to be a bit of lightning, a spell of rain — almost literally damp squibs. The alarmed response to the arrival of Hurricane Sandy – the New York City subway shutdown, residents’ crazed stockpiling of essentials, the preventive switching off of some utilities and the cancellation of most international flights to New York – could be seen as just another in a long line of such warnings. That would be a severe mistake. Indeed, the weather in the US’ Atlantic seaboard for once deserves the media coverage that it is likely to get in India. For this is already no ordinary hurricane. It has shown patterns and characteristics that no Atlantic storm in recorded meteorological history has.

It is, first, the largest hurricane on record — at least for the many decades that the diameters of gale-force winds have been measured for such hurricanes and tropical cyclones. It, indeed, combines the characteristics of temperate-zone hurricanes with tropical-zone cyclones in a way that puzzles and confuses meteorologists. Part of its intensity and expanse comes from an unprecedented combination of freezing arctic air and moisture-laden, warm air. Finally, it is doing what no other North Atlantic storm in history has done: heading “upwards”, it was blocked, by an unusual zone of high pressure around the island of Greenland in the far north, from dissipating its energy in the frozen tundra — and so it took a sharp left towards the American coast. Combined, these factors seem to have created a storm that breaks records that have stood the test of time. By any standards, this is an extreme weather event.

Bad news for America, sure, but why should it worry the rest of the world? Because such weather events are increasing in frequency and disruptive effect everywhere. Global warming, it is now apparent, is accompanied by global “weirding”, as unusual climate-related catastrophes hit coastlines and mountainous regions. Till recently, meteorologists and climate scientists would have been unwilling to hold human activity responsible for such changes. More detailed research studies are now emerging from such unimpeachable sources as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US and the Met Office in the UK that do detail and estimate the human contribution to extreme weather events. In the case of Hurricane Sandy, higher-than-before ocean temperatures off the US east coast increased the water vapour available to create a storm. It formed later in the season, increasing the chances of interacting with freezing arctic air. And the block over Greenland was probably a product of melting polar ice. Complex systems may lead to catastrophic consequences. The name “Frankenstorm” is eerily right for a creation of human hubris.

The US’ Atlantic seaboard is one of the richest parts of the world. However, extreme weather is likely to disproportionately hit areas in poorer, tropical countries like India. National action plans are not enough; energy must be restored to the international effort to control global warming. The US presidential debates did not even mention global warming. India, which helped block agreement at the big Copenhagen climate change meeting, must put co-operation back on the world’s agenda.