Akhilesh's 2024 challenge: Keep the flock together or risk migration

If he loses Western UP, SP chief will have onerous task of corralling 34 Muslim MLAs for next five years

The colour of the rainbow alliance of different castes in Uttar Pradesh (UP), which the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) cobbled together ahead of the 2022 Assembly elections, seems to be fast fading after its electoral defeat.

Amid SP allies’ charges of ticket sale, wrong candidate selection, and not giving them a fair share in the alliance, the daunting task at hand for Akhilesh is to keep his flock together until the 2024 Lok Sabha (LS) elections. 

Despite assurances from allies to fight the 2024 general election in concert with the SP, Akhilesh seems to be losing the plot. The first chink in the SP armour being Shivpal Singh Yadav, president of the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia), and Akhilesh’s estranged uncle, after he was denied a Leader of the Opposition berth. The wheel seems to have been set in motion for the history of SP’s previous alliances to repeat itself. 

In the past, the Congress parted ways with the SP after an electoral defeat at the 2017 Assembly elections.

In 2019, the Bahujan Samaj Party followed suit after the general election drub.

Political pundits feel that past experience may not have hurt the prospects of SP electorally. But if anyone breaks ranks this time, it could result in a decline in its vote share, which is at its highest ever (32.06 per cent) is due to the consolidation of the Muslims and Yadavs (30 per cent of the electorate) and a significant number of Jats, Rajbhars, Patels, and Kurmis coming into its fold. 

Shaky foundation  

It is not just Shivpal who is not happy with the SP, but the Muslim leadership of the party is also upset with the SP leadership for not raising its community issues legitimately. 

Murmurs from the Azam Khan camp and SP Member of Parliament (MP) Shafiqur Rahman Barq from Sambhal that Akhilesh has been ‘ignoring’ the party veteran and the Muslim community and Azam being denied an audience with an SP delegation have given wings to rumours that Azam, who has been the ‘Muslim face’ of the SP since inception, could leave the party ahead of the general election. 

Another SP Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) Shazil Islam, whose petrol pump was demolished by authorities after the election results, didn’t meet the SP delegation sent by Akhilesh.

“By sending a delegation, Akhilesh is mocking our misery,” said a former Muslim MLA from SP. 

According to the Lokniti-CSDS data, 79 per cent Muslims and 83 per cent Yadavs voted for the SP - an increase of 33 percentage points (ppt) and 15 ppt, respectively, since the 2017 Assembly election.

The Yadav-Muslim consolidation notwithstanding, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) Yadavs and Muslim vote share increased 2 ppt.

“Azam and Shivpal parting ways with the SP will dent core vote-base,” says Pramod Goswami, political scientist and journalist, adding, “Shivpal meeting Azam and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) National President Jayant Chaudhary are clues that the future course for Akhilesh is thorny.”

Shivpal also accused his nephew Akhilesh of not taking up jailed SP leader Azam’s cause and said he would soon place the matter before UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

In a first, Shivpal also pointed a finger at SP patriarch Mulayam Singh for not standing up for Azam. Shivpal said had Netaji (Mulayam) led a dharna of SP MPs and taken up Azam’s case with Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, things would have been a lot different.

Of the five members who won the 2019 general elections, three were Muslims and two were Yadavs. SP won the Yadav strongholds of Mainpuri and Azamgarh, and Muslim-dominated Moradabad, Rampur, and Sambhal.

According to a political expert, Azam exerts influence over these three Muslim-dominated seats and should he exit the SP, the party could lose all seats in these districts. 

“It will be no surprise if the SP’s allies break up in pursuit of a better partnership. Akhliesh is on a sticky wicket and has nothing to offer them,” says Mirza Asmer Beg, professor in the Department of Political Science at Aligarh Muslim University, and Lokniti state coordinator (UP West). 

The Rajya Sabha (RS) virus

Meanwhile, after losing four elections in eight years (2014 LS, 2017 Assembly election, 2019 LS, and 2022 Assembly election), Akhilesh is currently struggling to silence dissent by accommodating members of his party and allies in the RS, for which elections are to be held in July.

SP and its allies RLD (eight) and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (six) have a total strength of 125 MLAs in the UP Legislative Assembly, and they will be able to elect three candidates easily to the RS. As many as 11 RS members from UP are retiring in July.

The RS seats seem to have clouded Akhilesh’s partnership with Jayant, after the party’s reconsideration of his candidature to the RS. The prepoll alliance with Jayant included a seat in the RS. According to sources, the SP leadership could recant its offer. 

A senior party leader said: “What use is Jayant to us? The SP has many Jat leaders. Giving him a ticket will not do the party any good.”

However, a former Member of the Legislative Council counters, “Every Other Backward Class leader wants Jayant sent to the RS. If the party fails to do so, it is set to lose control in the Jat-dominated seats of Western UP.” 

However, political watchers believe that Jayant’s recent visits to meet the family of a Dalit killed in Rajasthan with Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan and a visit to Azam’s home are a red signal to the SP leadership, warning it about the dangers of its ignorance in recognising its prepoll promises.

“The banding together of Azad, Jayant, Azam, and Shivpal will be a big challenge for Akhilesh. If Akhilesh doesn’t give the RS seat to Jayant, he might as well scout for new partners,” says Goswami, adding, “If this happens, Akhilesh will lose Western UP and will have the onerous task of corralling 34 Muslim MLAs, who won the 2022 Assembly elections, for the next five years.” 

If Akhilesh fails to heal the widening schism, his allies and party members could join the likes of Neeraj Shekhar, son of former PM Chandra Shekhar, Surendra Singh Nagar, an influential Gurjar leader from Western UP and Akhilesh’s ‘Man Friday, party treasurer Sanjay Seth, who joined the BJP months after SP’s debacle in the 2019 LS elections, and BJP’s Naresh Agarwal.