BJP is elected single largest party

At this point, the pre-poll allies of the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) can be counted on the fingers of one hand. The party has plumped for the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has great mischief potential, as in 2009. An added vote divider is the Aam Aadmi Party, though it is not clear what the party will do in the Lok Sabha elections. Traditional ally Akali Dal continues to be by its side.

But apart from tiny parties like the Asom Gana Parishad, BJP's pool of pre-poll allies is embarrassingly small.

There are a few potential allies. In Tamil Nadu, negotiations with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam have yielded nothing, despite the Tamil Nadu unit of BJP's enthusiastic support of the idea. The local unit is ambivalent about a tie-up with J Jayalalithaa's All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam but that's what the central party favours. Hence, a pre-poll alliance seems unlikely in Tamil Nadu. The Telugu Desam Party (still reluctant to commit itself to supporting BJP for fear of losing its Muslim support) is peeking out of the door and beckoning BJP but will not enter into a pre-poll adjustment.

All this means that out of 545 seats in the Lok Sabha, BJP is likely to contest at least 450 on its own. For the party to make a convincing stab at power, every second candidate it sets up must win. Only, and only, if it can win at least 225 seats, can the party hope to form a government. And, in that scenario, its allies will not be able to set their own terms for their support.

But what if its tally falls below this number? There is a prevalent but wholly erroneous view that the allies will be able to dictate to BJP Legislature Party in the new Lok Sabha on who its leader should be. This has happened only once in the history of India, during the tenure of the United Front (1996-98), when the then Congress president Sitaram Kesri, finding it impossible to talk to prime minister H D Deve Gowda, forced the alliance to replace its prime minister.

The situation is materially different now. BJP has campaigned and fought using Narendra Modi's name, picture and personality as its choice for prime minister. It would be unthinkable to change this only because the party is unable to manage the numbers to form a government. If the numbers are inadequate, Modi himself is likely to declare that the party will sit in the Opposition. What this might do to the internal power dynamics in BJP is another matter.

Which brings us to the numbers. Where will BJP get its numbers from?

The party is putting all its resources into improving its tally from Uttar Pradesh (80) and Bihar (40). At present, it has only 10 seats from UP and 12 in Bihar. It needs to significantly increase its strength in the two states to reinvent itself because it will be contesting the elections on its own for the first time. The strategy in these two northern states has to be watched closely.

More so, because despite Modi's appeal, especially among first-time voters, BJP has little or no political capital in at least five important states - West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. That adds up to 165 seats that can be written off for the party. The allies it manages to find in these states will be crucial in nudging it to power.