Is the Third Front emerging as a platform for PM aspirants?

With too many in the fray for the top job, the front would most likely self destruct before a consensus emerges among its constituents

Certainly, neither the Congress nor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is strong enough to win a majority alone in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. The influence of both parties has been eroded by the rise of a plethora of strong regional players tied to various regions, castes and ideologies. Political competition is all about offering alternatives — or pretending to do so. On Wednesday, leaders of 11 parties including the Left met to forge an alternative to the Congress and the BJP but indicated that a 'Third Front' had a long way to go. The 11 parties in the new formation hold 92 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha.

 

History has shown us that such experiments rarely succeed. The principal reason for this is that the parties willing to team up do not share a common ideology. The United Front of 1996 was a similar attempt. Such political coalitions are not only incapable of offering a stable government at the Centre but they also become victims of narrow goals of regional parties and leaders. Regional politics overtakes issues of governance for such an alliance. Worse still, personal ambitions of the regional satraps make it unworkable. This is because most of the regional parties are one-leader affairs. A similar alliance took power in 1989. Neither of these so-called third-front governments survived a full five-year term.

 

Political analysts call the 'Third Front' a club full of prime ministers. Probably, this makes it almost doomed from the word go. The AIADMK wants its chief J Jayalalithaa to be the Prime Minister, and Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav sees a similar role for himself, noting that Uttar Pradesh sends more members to Parliament than Tamil Nadu or Bihar. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar too would like to throw his hat into the prime ministerial ring now that he has cut off ties with the BJP. But, practically, a third front can take shape only after the election in a situation where both the Congress and the BJP find it difficult to form a government.

 

In the event of a Third Front government, there’ll be no shortage of PM candidates

. Nitish Kumar, JD (U)

Bihar

Seats in 2009: 20 out of 40

Known for his no-nonsense style of functioning and secular image. He has close ties with many heavyweight political leaders. By breaking the BJP alliance, he has tried hard to get the Muslim-EBC-Mahadalit votes that together make up around 55% of the state’s total votes.

. H D Deve Gowda, JD (S) 

Karnataka 

Seats in 2009: 3 out of 28

Prides himself as one of the founders of the Third Front vision. May sell his past experience as PM to perhaps emerge as consensus candidate again.

. The Left

West Bengal, Kerala, Tripura 

Seats in 2009: 25

A key architect of the Third Front, it will canvas aggressively for the other constituents across India. Hopes to play kingmaker.

. J Jayalalitha, AIADMK

Tamil Nadu

Seats in 2009: 9 out of 39

If she sweeps Tamil Nadu, then Jayalalitha thinks she can be PM. Is banking heavily on anti-Congress wave and the inner-party rivalry in DMK

. Naveen Patnaik, BJD

Orissa

Seats in 2009: 14 out of 21

Seen as the posh candidate for the top job. Non-controversial and clean image. If the BJD bags around 20 seats then Patnaik may either play the role of a kingmaker or even be anointed as the king. 

. Mayawati*, BSP

Uttar Pradesh

Seats in 2009: 20 out of 80

*Still to make up her mind on joining the Front. For her, seats in UP critical. Her PM dreams are public knowledge.

. Mulayam Singh Yadav, SP

Uttar Pradesh

Seats in 2009: 23 out of 80

Largely depends on caste and minority votes. Deeply understands religious and caste equations in the state. Fancies his chances of heading to 7, Race Course Road.