Job promises in Bihar elections: Tall claims or a distinct possibility?

Although a Herculean task, some experts believe that the promises are achievable and that money will not be a problem

Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal has promised to provide a million government jobs in its election manifesto in Bihar, while the Bharatiya Janata Party has said it will generate 1.9 million employment opportunities. 

As many as 9.8 per cent of those aged at least 15 years and wanting to work were unemployed in Bihar during 2018-19 (July-June period), against 5.8 per cent at the national level. The unemployment rate stood at 10.2 per cent in the case of males and three per cent in the case of females in Bihar. On the other hand, it stood at six per cent for males and 5.1 per cent for females at the all-India level. 

If the entire population is taken into account and not just those wanting to work, only 24.1 per cent were employed in Bihar during the year against 35.3 per cent at all India level. 

Only 2.7 per cent of females were employed in Bihar against 17.6 per cent at the national level. On  the other hand, 43.6 per cent of males had jobs in Bihar against 52.3 per cent at the national level. 

This shows that Bihar has a poor record of employment generation. 

In such a scenario, how feasible are the promises made by RJD and BJP?

To this query, Bihar deputy chief minister Sushil Modi wondered, "You (RJD) are promising the moon. Has any Cabinet in its first meeting cleared one million government jobs anywhere in the world? Where are the government jobs that you will give?"

Modi told Business Standard that the crisis faced by the states now, is how will government employees be given salaries after November. 

"Half a dozen states have cut salaries and pension. Bihar is among the few that have not done so till now. There has been a revenue shortfall of 30-40 per cent. Where is the possibility of creating new posts when paying salaries of existing employees is in question? Where are the posts vacant," Modi asked. 

Modi said if RJD's promise is to be believed, Rs 58,000 crore will have to be set aside in the Budget. "Then you will have to close other government schemes and stop Rs 30,000 crore of pension. The government will be paying only salaries."

Yadav recently said at the Yuva Naukri Samvad Programme, "To give jobs to one million people, even if the salaries of the Chief Minister, Ministers and MLAs need to be cut, then it will be done and jobs given." 

Countering this, Modi said even if these salaries are stopped, only Rs 20 crore will be saved. "These promises lack substance," he said. 

The RJD supremo also said Bihar has a population of close to 125 million, and needs 125,000 doctors and support staff too. The Health Department needs 250,000 heads. Fifty-thousand police posts are lying vacant--this when the police-public ratio is at its minimum in the state. Currently, there are just 77 policemen per 100,000 population. "In Manipur, a small state, there are over one thousand policemen per 100,000 population," Yadav said.

Contesting this, Modi asked, "Are there 125,000 government doctors in any state of India? Where are the vacancies? If we fill up another 3,000-4,000 government posts for doctors, all vacancies will be filled."

He recalled that three chairmen and two members of Bihar Public Service Commission appointed under the RJD's rule went to jail on charges of  corruption and mala fide intentions. "Their track record is so bad, will people believe in their tall promises," the Prime Minister asked.

Explaining the mechanism for creating government employment, he said it takes 2-3 years to fill a newly created job. 

"When you create posts, you provide money in the Budget, set up agencies, assign the task to agencies, clear the roster, then  agencies advertise those posts. It takes 4-6 months. Then forms are given, there are preliminary exams, secondary exams, tertiary exams, and then interview. After that, posts are filled 2-3 years later. And you claim one million jobs will be created soon after you sign on such a proposal in the very first Cabinet meeting," Modi said. 

There are no jobs for those  who have not passed the intermediate level of education in Bihar, Modi said. 

To buttress his point, he said, "For instance, the minimum requirement even for a constable is intermediate pass. We have created 7-8 agencies for recruitment in different government jobs. Earlier, there were no separate agencies. There was only one agency for that purpose. Now there is a separate board for police recruitments, separate for lecturers, separate for doctors etc." 

Distinguishing between the Yadav's promise and that of the BJP, Modi said the latter has not promised government jobs, it has talked about creating job opportunities.  

"We have promised that we will create one million job opportunities in the agriculture sector. The core sector is agriculture in Bihar. We will set up FPOs (farmers producer organisations)," he said. 

Job opportunities will be created in the agriculture sector, in the IT sector, in the leather industry, food processing sector etc, he said. 

"We have opened so many engineering colleges. There is an engineering college and a government polytechnic in every district of Bihar. Skilled people can find jobs. This is the way employment is generated. Government jobs are not an alternative" Modi said. 

However, D M Diwakar, professor of economics at A N Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna and its former director, had different views and felt that the RJD's promise on jobs is entirely feasible.  

"Yes, providing one million government jobs is feasible. Already, there are 1.045 million vacancies in the government jobs, as revealed by the JD(U)-BJP government itself ," he said. 

He said Rs 58,000 crore would be required to fill these vacancies. 

But where will this money come from? Even if prohibition on potable alcohol is removed, it will generate only Rs 3,500-4,000 crore. 

Diwakar responded by saying if the government has the will to fill the vacancies, money will not be a problem. 

"The budget size has increased from Rs 22,000 crore in 2004-05 to over Rs trillion in 2019-20," he pointed out. 

"You have to re-prioritise your expenditure. Money being spent on non-employment sectors will be allocated to employment sectors. Your secretariat jobs are vacant, block level officials are not there, you don't have health workers, you don't have adequate police personnel, you don't have adequate teachers in schools, you don't have lecturers in colleges, universities," he said. 

He said while infrastructure development is important, money could be raised through government bonds to fund it and budgetary money could be allocated to employment generating sectors. 

"Once you employ 1.045 million people (the vacant posts), they will spend money on the economic activities. Part of that will accrue to the government through income tax and indirect taxes," he said. 

But the crucial issue of revenues for government jobs still remains, as the pressure on revenues has mounted in post-Covid Bihar. Even Budget Estimates, which are generally ambitious, projected own-tax revenue in Bihar to grow just 1.9 per cent in the current financial year.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its recent report on state budgets have said that it will take many years for states to come out of Covid stress with revenues declining and expenditures rising

Mahesh Vyas, managing director and CEO of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), said it is important to make generating government jobs feasible rather than arguing about it not being feasible. 

"We don't expect the government to deliver anything-- inadequate  police, sanitation, water supply, road networks are there because the government does not have resources," he pointed out. 

So, this is a catch-22 situation, he said, wondering, "Are we going to remain where we are forever? We cannot forever keep on saying that the government cannot do anything because it cannot afford. So are we saying that the government cannot deliver anything because it has undermanned itself? How will we get justice and security if the government does not have enough judges 

and security personnel? If you say there are no resources you are implicitly expecting low governance." 

When asked that jobs could be generated in the private sector too, he said,"Do we expect that security and justice to come from the private sector? Do you expect water to come from the private sector? Do you expect sanitation to come from the private sector? Do you  expect the private sector to own all the roads that we have?"

He said this is exactly the problem that India has got itself into. It has started believing that the government need not deliver any governance at all under the name of fiscal prudence and lack of resources. 

"I am questioning this entire premise," he asserted.