What if a third front is able to make a claim to power?

Complex and unlikely to come about easily, both before and after the coming Lok Sabha elections

What if the combined numerical strength of parties apart from the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party is such that a 'Third Front' is able to make a claim to power?

The idea would not have been so hard to countenance if the ambitions of the constituents making up the so-called Front had not been on a collision course.

First the numbers. There is hardly any doubt that the absence of BJP in 165-plus Lok Sabha seats (545 is the House total) is going to cost the party dear. It is also equally clear that a large section of the Congress believes a BJP ascendancy must be prevented at any cost. Therefore, a scenario where a consortium of political parties comes together on an agreed common minimum programme, and the Congress agrees to help it to prevent another election, is within the realm of possibility.

Possibility but not so probable. Why?

Not malleable
One, inherent contradictions among these parties. We had a taste during the elections for the President of India. Recall that Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Mamata Bannerjee of the Trinamool Congress got together to offer a presidential candidate to the Congress, so long as it was someone other than Pranab Mukherjee. Yet, at the last moment, Yadav broke ranks with Banerjee, who was left isolated.

Those dominating the Third Front arena are, by and large, highly individualistic, heading one-person-led parties. Their ambition makes other political partners wary. Most of these parties are regional and their main opposition everywhere is the Congress. They tend to lose political space when they collaborate with the Congress.

Congress stakes
More important, it is the Congress that stands to lose the most by this sort of collaboration. Cadres get demoralised when their primary enemy in the state becomes their primary ally at the Centre. In Tamil Nadu, for instance, the single most important reason for the Congress organisation being in a shambles is the political price it has paid by being an oft-ally of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi has been vocal in articulating the belief that the Congress has to cut ties with all such parties and stand on its own two feet. However, pragmatists in the party say if decimation of the organisation is the price the Congress has to pay to keep BJP out and reinforce its image among the minorities as their protectors, that sacrifice will have to be made.

The scenario will be clearer when the results are out. It works in theory but practice is something else altogether.