Year 2020 will test BJP's intellectual wherewithal to win the streets

The protests against CAA,NPR and NRC has queered the BJP's pitch that youth cutting across religious lines have joined the movement, calling the law 'discriminatory'

Year 2019 was a roller coaster for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It lost a few electoral battles, but triumphed in the key one — the Lok Sabha polls. Legislatively, it delivered on its core agenda of scrapping Article 370.

Year 2020 would test not only the BJP’s ability to win the ballot box in the couple of Assembly polls, but whether it has the intellectual wherewithal to win the streets.

It will test if the BJP has the faculty to persuade the country’s youth and minorities that it has their interests at heart, and the perspicacity to reach out to its increasingly upset allies.

Year 2020 will tell the country if the BJP’s current leadership, and its governments at the Centre and in states, have the ability to accomplish this democratically and with minimal violence.

As the first week of the new year will show, the challenge for the BJP is not only from its ideological opponents in the Left, but also from within the Sangh Parivar.

The protests against the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), National Population Register (NPR) and National Register of Citizens (NRC) are set to continue.

It has queered the BJP’s pitch that youth cutting across religious lines have joined the protests, and that they are protested not just the “discriminatory” law. The youth, the BJP’s key support base since 2014, is also protesting the hopelessness triggered by a slowing economy and lack of job opportunities.

The central trade unions have decided to launch protests against privatisation and disinvestment of public sector undertakings (PSUs). They will also raise their voice against “increasing unemployment” and price rise, issues likely to appeal to the youth. 

The Left parties have announced protests against disinvestment of PSUs like BPCL from January 1 to 7, which will culminate in the ‘all-India strike’ by 10 central trade unions on January 8.

Such is the pressure from its own workers, that the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS), the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) affiliated trade union, has announced nationwide protests to “awaken the government” on January 3. Not just disinvestment, it will protest increasing digitization as well.

The BJP leadership will be called on to fight the political battle at multiple fronts in 2020. It has asked its spokesperson to fan out across the country in the first week of the new year to drum support for CAA and NPR.

Party sources say it is nearly certain that Amit Shah will continue as the BJP president for some more time, flouting the party’s ‘one man one post’ rule.

Electorally, 2020 is scheduled for only two Assembly polls. These are in Delhi by February, and in Bihar by October. Surveys by Lokniti-CSDS show the Delhi poll is set to be difficult for the BJP.

In Delhi, the survey has stated, the BJP does not have a leader to match the popularity of Aam Aadmi Party chief, Delhi Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal.

Bihar could have been an easier battle for the BJP to win, particularly with Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad in jail. But recent reverses in states and ally Janata Dal (United) unhappy with CAA and NRC, after voting for CAA in Parliament, is not good news for the alliance in Bihar. 

The BJP and JD (U) alliance had won 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats of Bihar in 2019. According to the Lokniti-CSDS post poll survey in the neighbouring Jharkhand, the Yadavs are gravitating away from the BJP in the state after having supported it in the Lok Sabha polls. The poll has noted the trend could influence elections in Bihar.

The BJP has lost five states since December 2018. Jharkhand and Maharashtra are the latest, suggesting the narrative on nationalism has diminishing electoral returns when people are faced more urgent issues of livelihood.

Currently, the BJP is busy holding discussions on preparation of the next Budget of the Modi government. Its general secretary (organisation) BL Santhosh, the man responsible for coordination between the RSS and BJP, is leading the effort.

According to sources associated with the effort, the most urgent challenge is to reach out to the youth. In his ‘Mann ki Baat’ on Sunday, the PM tried. “In three days: A new year, a new decade. What is certain is that the coming decade will see those born in the 21st century playing a key role in national progress. During Mann Ki Baat today, I saluted India’s youth for their energy, vibrancy,” Modi tweeted Sunday evening.

Political analyst Suhas Palshikar believes year 2020 will test India’s democracy. “Digital technology for NRC, CCTV for taking 'revenge' against protestors, drones and facial recognition technology to profile participants in protests, is a decisive turn away from democracy; something not just the BJP but other parties too are sure to use as starategies of governance,” he says.