American psephologist will try predicting Indian poll winners

"I am meeting scholars in Delhi in the next few days to understand the political system here. We are going to try but there are big challenges," Lichtman told PTI here on the possibility of using his model in India.

Based on the theory of pragmatic voting, the psephologist, who teaches history at American University in Washington, has co-developed a system for predicting the popular vote result of US presidential elections.

Also published as a book, the model - 'The Keys to the White House' - has correctly forecast the popular vote winner of all seven presidential elections from 1984 to 2008, usually months or even years prior to the date of election.

Asked if the model would work in the Indian context, Lichtman said he was not too confident, as the presence of a multi-party system in India as compared to the two-party system in the USA makes it tough for predicting results.

"The Indian democracy is only a little over 60 years old. You have a multi-party system and incredibly diverse regional parties. These are very big differences when you compare it with the USA. I don't know whether it is going to work in India," he said.

Currently on a 21-day, five-city tour of India, Lichtman has already discussed his model with scholars and political analysts in Thiruvananthapuram and Hyderabad. His next stop is New Delhi. MORE