Ebola treatment beds prevented 40,000 deaths in Sierra Leone

According to a new study, introducing beds just a month earlier may have halved the outbreak

Supplying thousands of Ebola treatment beds prevented around 57,000 Ebola cases and 40,000 deaths in Sierra Leone, but introducing beds just a month earlier may have halved the outbreak, a new study has found.

The UK played a leading role in the response to the crisis in Sierra Leone, researchers said.

This focused on increasing the number of available treatment beds which isolated the ill to prevent further infections in the community, changing behaviour so people suspected of having Ebola sought treatment early, and making burials safe.

"Our findings show the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in Ebola transmission," said lead author Adam Kucharski, Lecturer in Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

"Given the rapid growth of the outbreak in Sierra Leone, if those beds hadn't been in place to isolate the ill and avert further infections, the epidemic could have been much worse," said Kucharski.

Between September 2014 and February 2015, more than 1,500 treatment beds were introduced in Ebola holding centres and community care centres, and a further 1,200 in Ebola treatment units, to support the overstretched health system in Sierra Leone.

Using mathematical models, researchers estimated the potential impact additional treatment beds had in bringing about the decline of the Ebola outbreak.

They separated out the effect of beds from other factors that reduced transmission, such as behaviour change, community engagement, improved case finding and increase in safe burials.

Taking into account both reported and presumed unreported cases, the researchers say 57,000 Ebola cases were prevented up to February 2015 as a direct result of the introduction of treatment beds.

Given that the Ebola case fatality rate in Sierra Leone was near 70 per cent, the researchers estimate this averted 40,000 deaths.

However, they estimate that had the beds been introduced just one month earlier, an additional 12,500 reported and unreported cases could have prevented.

"There has been much criticism of the international community's slow response to the Ebola outbreak," said co-author John Edmunds from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

"Our analysis suggests putting treatment beds in place just one month earlier could have further reduced the size of the outbreak and potentially saved thousands of more lives," said Edmunds.

Beginning in December 2013, the world's largest ever Ebola epidemic primarily affected Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone in West Africa. Liberia has recently been declared Ebola free, while Guinea and Sierra Leone have very few cases left.

The study was published in the journal PNAS.