Forecasting model to be developed for long-term prediction on

An expert panel of scientists and researchers said here on Tuesday that a forecasting model would be developed for long-term prediction on the abundance of Indian oil sardine on regular basis.

A collaborative research initiative partnering different institutions was required to develop the forecasting model, they said.

They were speaking to the media on the sidelines of a national-level symposium at the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) here to analyse the reasons behind the fluctuations of oil sardine in the southern Arabian sea.

The panel opined that a temporary regulation may be recommended during the period of stressful environmental conditions that affect the abundance of oil sardine.

The fishing pressure during this period would lead to further collapse of the sardine resource, they said.

The panel noted that sardine availability has recorded a drastic drop since last year and the situation has not yet improved.

It also proposed that the Minimum Legal Size (MLS) be raised to 15 cm from the existing 10 cm in Kerala during the periods of stress such as El Nino years.

The fluctuations of sardine are mainly influenced by unfavourable conditions after due to El Nino, stunted growth, spawning disruption, migration from normal fishing grounds and continued high fishing pressure.

However, a collaborative research initiative was needed to study the environmental impact and climate change on pelagic fishery resources, the researchers said.

CMRFI Directror A Gopalakrishnan said their earlier advisory on the decline of sardine depending on El Nino intensification was a "remarkable step" in analysing the reasons behind the fluctuation of sardine.

"A regular forecasting model will be made possible with the cooperation of different research institutes working in climate change, oceanography and fishery biology", he said, adding that CMFRI would release a draft sequence of genome of sardine by the end of this year.

Though CMFRI found that three types of sardines including Oman sardine have the same genetic structure, separate management strategies are required for these sardines.

Besides CMFRI scientists, researchers from the National Institute of Oceanography, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Space Applications Centre of ISRO, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Central Institute of Fisheries Technology presented their findings.