Global recovery, China to pull oil demand in 2014: IEA

Global economic recovery and emerging markets led by China will boost growth of oil demand to a record high total next year, the IEA forecast today.
Next year, consumption by emerging markets will dominate demand overall, a position "they should hold in perpetuity", the International Energy Agency said.
But the IEA monthly report stressed that the oil market is heading into a sea of "many uncertainties", partly because oil production in the United States is "set to grow strongly".
Supply from other countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), notably Brazil, Kazakhstan and South Sudan, would also rise and was set for a 20-year record, the agency forecast.

For this year, because unseasonally cold weather had caused a big increase in demand for heating oil in the northern hemisphere in the second quarter, the agency raised its estimate for global demand by 215,000 barrels per day (bd).
This took the overall estimated annual growth to 930,000 bd, and total consumption to 90.8 million barrels per day (mbd).

The IEA estimates show demand rising by a further 1.2 mbd next year to 92.0 million barrels per day, a new record after record demand also this year.
In London, the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil fell 24 cents from the closing price yesterday to USD 106.28, partly in response to the report but also due to comments on monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve and a bullish outlook for US fuel stocks, traders said. The price is at a 15-month high point, however.

Regarding supply, "upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa remains an overarching concern," the IEA warned.
"Emerging markets and developing economies are forecast to lead demand growth in 2014," the IEA said.
The growth of demand from countries outside the 34-member OECD had slowed "from the heady pace of recent years" but would "climb above total OECD demand in the second quarter of 2014," the agency said.
Recently, the speed of expansion had slowed most in China, India and the Middle East, but demand by China would still lead consumption by emerging markets, the agency said.