There has never been a statistically significant 'pause' in global warming, scientists say.
Many studies over the past decade have claimed to find a pause or slowdown in global warming and have typically posited this as evidence that is inconsistent with our understanding of global warming.
The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, looked at how the 'pause' had been defined, the time intervals used to characterise it, and the methods used to assess it.
The study then tested historical and current versions of the Earth's global mean surface temperature (GMST) datasets for pauses, both in terms of no warming trend and a substantially slower trend in GMST.
"Our findings show there is little or no statistical evidence for a 'pause' in GMST rise," said James Risbey from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia.
"Neither the current data nor the historical data support it. Moreover, updates to the GMST data through the period of 'pause' research have made this conclusion stronger. But, there was never enough evidence to reasonably draw any other conclusion," Risbey said.
He said that "global warming did not pause, but we need to understand how and why scientists came to believe it had, to avoid future episodes like this."
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