NCAER expects India's GDP to grow at 6.2 pc in FY20

India's GDP growth is likely to be 6.2 per cent during the current fiscal, down from 6.8 per cent in 2018-19, on account of flat growth in agriculture sector, economic think-tank NCAER said on Tuesday.

The prospects for agricultural sector in 2019-20 depend largely on the south-west monsoon, it said in a statement.

As of August 5, 2019, out of a total number of 36 agro-meteorological sub-divisions in the country, three have received excess rainfall, 21 get normal rainfall, while the remaining 12 sub-divisions were rain deficient.

And the country as a whole has received 7 per cent below normal rainfall by August 5, 2019. It has also experienced temporal variations in rainfall.

"The forecast as per the annual model is that GDP at market prices will grow at 6.2 per cent and Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices at 6 per cent for 2019-20 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis.

"The forecast as per the quarterly model is that GVA will grow at 6.2 per cent on a y-o-y basis," NCAER said.

In 201920, it further said, the real agriculture GVA is envisaged to grow at zero per cent, real industry GVA at 6.1 per cent, and real services GVA at 6.9 per cent.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is projected at 2.6 per cent.

As per the NCAER, the growth rates in exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 4.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively.

The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at (-) 0.6 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.