SW Monsoon in 'break' mode, north to get 'subdued rain'

The South West Monsoon has gone into a "break" and the situation is likely to continue for at least another week, a private weather forecasting agency today said.
"In the last few days, the Monsoon current remained weak for the major part of the country and rain was confined to only a few pockets.
"The Monsoon has gone into a break and the situation is likely to continue for at least another week," said private forecasting agency, Skymet.
In meteorological terminology, 'break' in the Monsoon comes when three or more consecutive days of rainfall are way below normal in the 'core Monsoon zone'.

Mid August is the most prone to 'breaks' and that too longer breaks, Skymet said, adding that, "The national capital witnessed the last spell of rain on August 10 while Amritsar has received just 9mm rain in the last 10 days. Patiala did not receive any rain during this period."
Meanwhile, in its forecast for the next three days, the Indian Meteorological Department has said, "Subdued rainfall activity would continue over the plains of northwest India and Gujarat. Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over western Himalayan region, interior Maharashtra and peninsular India till 24th and decrease thereafter."

Ministry of Earth Sciences had predicted that August and September would receive over 95 per cent of the normal rainfall.

"We stick to our prediction that the country shall receive overall rainfall of 95 per cent. There has been a lull in the rainfall, but the overall deficit has remained constant, fluctuating between 17-18 per cent," said Shailesh Nayak, secretary in the earth sciences ministry.
Skymet has said that when there is a break in the Monsoon, there is an increase in temperatures over the plains of northwest India and general decrease of rainfall over the major parts of the country, including the west coast.
Absence of any disturbance in the Bay of Bengal and the westward-moving low pressure areas at low latitudes in the Bay of Bengal, is also a phenomenon for "break" in the monsoon.