Wall Street overwhelmingly backs Romney: Survey

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Press Trust of India New York
Last Updated : Jan 21 2013 | 5:46 PM IST

Twelve out of 18 investment strategists and money managers surveyed by CNNMoney said the stock market would perform better with Romney, a businessman-turned-politician in the White House than during a second Obama term.

As the US struggles with sluggish economic growth, high unemployment, over USD 16 trillion in national debt, a looming debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff, "Romney offers the potential for a more bipartisan, pro-growth set of fiscal policy initiatives, which ultimately would be better for the stock market," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

Historically, political gridlock has been considered a positive for the stock market since it minimises drastic policy changes, but experts say that a continued stalemate would be too detrimental for the sluggish economy, and the stock market.

"Normally, people think gridlock is good for the markets, but today the US has pressing problems that need to be addressed," said Dorsey Farr, co-founder of French Wolf & Farr, an investment advisory firm in Atlanta.

"The economy really needs a shot in the arm and that's going to take new leadership and some new policies. The market will do better with a president who understands business, appreciates the virtues of capitalism, and demonstrates a willingness and ability to work with Congress to lead on these tough issues," Farr said.

While Romney might create more business-friendly policies over time, Romney could also bring a big element of uncertainty, said Ryan Detrick, equity strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"With Obama, the market knows what to expect. Whether you agree with his policies or not, the odds of a big surprise from him are slim," Detrick said.

Plus, research shows that interest rates and monetary policy influence share prices much more than which political party is in the White House or controls Congress, said Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services, who argues that Obama would be a better president for the stock market.

Experts also point out that the market has historically delivered a stronger performance under a Democratic president.

According to CMC Markets, the average monthly return on the stock market has been 0.73 per cent under Democratic presidents, nearly twice the 0.38 per cent return under Republicans. During Obama's four-year term, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 60 per cent.

  

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First Published: Nov 06 2012 | 7:45 PM IST

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