Oil edges up from four-year low to $78, IEA warns on 2015

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil edged up from an early four-year low below $77 a barrel on Friday, when it had been pressured by excess supply and scepticism that OPEC would cut output at a meeting in two weeks.

The International Energy Agency, which usually refrains from predicting oil prices, said in its monthly report that prices could fall further in 2015 and pressure was building on OPEC to cut supply.

"It is increasingly clear that we have begun a new chapter in the history of the oil markets," the IEA said.

"Barring any new supply disruption, downward price pressures could build further in the first half of 2015," said the IEA, which advises the United States and other industrialised countries.

Brent hit an intra-day low of $76.76 earlier in the session and traded at $78.13 as of 1041 GMT, up 64 cents from Thursday. U.S. crude was up 14 cents at $74.35.

Global benchmark Brent is down from $115 in June and has dropped for eight weeks in a row, its longest weekly losing streak since records began in 1988, based on Reuters data.

"Prices are in free fall. The market is saying OPEC won't do anything," said Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Sydney's Ayers Alliance.

Oil supply and demand balances of the IEA and other forecasters point to a rising supply surplus in 2015 because of increasing production from the United States and other countries outside OPEC.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Nov. 27 to discuss its response to falling prices. While some members such as Venezuela want OPEC to reduce output, top exporter Saudi Arabia has yet to say if it supports a cut.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi broke months of silence this week to reaffirm the kingdom's longstanding policy of seeking stable global markets, but offered no insight on his response to tumbling oil prices.

Supply disruptions have the potential to support prices. In Libya, the Hariga oil port reopened after a protest ended, but an oilfield, El Sharara, remains shut.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler and Keith Wallis; editing by David Clarke and William Hardy)