103.46 Mt Kharif Output Forecast
The standing commercial crops, including oilseeds, pulses and cotton, are also expected to throw up record harvests. The production of cotton may touch 13.63 million bales, over half-a-million bales higher than last year's record output of 13 million bales.
The kharif oilseed production is anticipated to touch a new peak of 13.5 mt and that of pulses 5.88 mt.The sugarcane output may, however, drop from last season's record 280.5 mt to around 271.8 mt this year.
The production of coarse creals, which had suffered heavily last year owing to diversion of area and adverse weather, is expected to make a remarkable recovery this year.
These figures have been compiled by the Union agriculture ministry on the basis of the reports submitted by states at the two-day national conference on agriculture that concluded here yesterday. The conference was convened to chalk out the crop production and input supply strategies for ensuing rabi season.
The optimism about the record agricultural harvest in the current kharif season emanates from the excellent performance of the south-west monsoon so far. The total precipitation has not only been normal or excess in most parts of the country but has also been well distributed, making it an ideal season from agricultural point of view.
Of the country's total 35 metropolitan sub-divisions, 33 have received normal or excess rainfall. The deficiency in the remaining two is only marginal and may even be made up by the end of monsoon season on September 30.
The preliminary estimates indicate that the rice output in the current kharif may be around 71.27 mt. The transplanting of paddy was completed in most parts of the country by the end of August though it continued till the first week of September in isolated pockets in Assam, Bihar, Orissa and eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Though the area under the crop is expected to be more or less the same as in last kharif, the output is anticipated to be more, thanks to favourable weather. Last year, erratic distribution of rainfall had led to substantial fall in paddy output.
The output of coarse grains is anticipated at around 26.31 mt in the current kharif. Though it is lower than the previous best of 30.6 mt in 1992-93, it is appreciably higher than last year. Indeed, this marks a reversal of the declining trend witnessed since 1992-93.
This is attributed mainly to larger area coverage and favourable weather. The condition of the standing crops of most coarse cereals, including jowar, bajra, ragi and small millets, is reported to be satisfactory.
Among the oilseeds, groundnut and soyabean may set new production records touching 6.27 mt and 5.03 mt, respectively. The output of the main kharif pulse, tur, is anticipated at 2.8 mt.