Arithmetic or chemistry?

The run-up to the Assembly elections in Bihar has thrown up acurious alliances with Rashtriya Janata Dal Chief Lalu Prasad proposing the name of incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as the alliance's chief ministerial candidate. Interestingly, the Janata Dal (United) leader was the one who ended the RJD's 15-year rule in the state. But what led to the arch rivals coming together? A look at the vote-share numbers explains why the anti-Bharatiya Janata Party forces had to consolidate:

Those who analyse Bihar politics in vote-share terms could be mistaken...

* About 155 million voters across 243 constituencies in Bihar have exercised their electoral choices in three Vidhan Sabha and three Lok Sabha elections since 2004. The BJP, JD(U), RJD, Congress and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party have contested elections in Bihar in various combinations

* When presented a ballot with the BJP, JD(U), RJD and Congress candidates, an increasing number of Biharis choose the BJP candidate over all the others combined

* In the 2004 Lok Sabha election, of 100 voters in Bihar that had a BJP or a RJD/JD(U) /Congress candidate on their ballot, 63 voters chose either of the three parties and 36 chose the BJP

* In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 40 of 100 voters chose the BJP and 45 voters chose either of the three parties, with the rest choosing others. The difference in contested vote-shares between BJP and the combined vote-shares of the three parties has narrowed from 26 per cent in the 2004 Lok Sabha election to 5 per cent in the 2014 elections when there was a choice of a candidate from one or more of JD(U), RJD and Congress parties vis-à-vis the BJP

* There is a clear decline in percentage of voters choosing the RJD or JD(U) or Congress combined in every election since the 2005 October Vidhan Sabha election

* While it is numerically true that in the most recent 2014 Lok Sabha elections, an alliance of JD(U), RJD and Congress would have won more votes than the NDA in 163 of the 243 constituencies, trends matter more than actual levels

Source: Data and analysis from Indiaspend