Bjp Braces For Another Trust Vote

The governments trouble-shooters have begun gearing up to face another confidence motion during the budget session of Parliament next month if, as now appears likely, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham and some of its allies withdraw support by then.

However, the BJP seems confident of surviving the test, if only because Congress president Sonia Gandhi is not eager to install an alternate government at least for the next few months. Sonia is apparently hoping that the BJP will perform poorly in power and lose public support while she rebuilds her party.

The BJP might survive the current crisis but AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha seems intent on bombarding the partys think-tank with a host of demands and stipulations which will make it tough for them to function.

Apart from the existing demand for the resignation of Union ministers Ramakrishna Hegde, Ram Jethmalani, Buta Singh, L K Advani, M M Joshi and Uma Bharati, Jayalalitha has been quietly putting pressure on Vajpayee to not induct any leaders from the TDP in the next cabinet expansion.

The Telugu Desams 12 Members of Parliament had voted in favour of the Vajpayee government during last months confidence motion in the Lok Sabha. Some of them are slated to be inducted in the government.

Jayalalitha has demanded that a meeting of the pre-poll allies be held to discuss the possible induction of new allies like the Telugu Desam, National Conference and the Asom Gana Parishad, which has no MP in the Lok Sabha but a couple of members in the Rajya Sabha.

If the Vajpayee government survives the budget session, BJP strategists expect yet another flashpoint in June. The Cauvery water dispute between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu is expected to hot up as the summer intensifies.

Jayalalitha has already demanded that the height of the Periyar dam be raised. She is also reportedly keen that the ministry of water resources be given to one of her MPs. The portfolio is with Prime Minister Vajpayee.

Jayalalithas men already have control over vital departments in the ministries of finance, law and personnel (CBI).

Conceding more to her will raise the hackles of other allies, who are unhappy with their respective representation in the government but are not throwing tantrums like her.

The Congress has also been rejecting her overtures made through Subramaniam Swamy. After all, who would like to ride a tigress?, remarked a senior BJP leader.

All the other demands made by Jayalalitha are essentially considered garnishing to the main demand of dismissing the Karunanidhi government, something that is opposed by almost every ally in the BJP-led coalition.

Apart from making some strong statements about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Tamil Nadu, the exertions of the Union home ministry are unlikely to lead to the DMK governments dismissal.

Given the intransigence of the Vajpayee government on the dismissal issue, Jayalalitha is expected to withdraw her ministers from the government while adopting the moralistic posture of continuing to support the government in order to avoid yet another election in the country.

At the same time, efforts will be made via Subramaniam Swamy to build bridges with the Congress, mainly through Sharad Pawar. Pawar has been in touch with Jayalalitha ever since the election results were declared.