China, Us Seen On Collision Course
China and the United States appear to be on a collision course and the looming conflict between the two could even lead to military hostilities if Beijing remains aggressive and Washington naive. This is the view of Richard Bernstein and Mr Ross H Munro, authors of a new book titled The Coming Conflict with China.
According to the authors, the US has been in major wars in Asia three times in the past half century, always to prevent a single power from gaining ascendancy in that continent and there seems little doubt that China will be on the ascendant on its side of the Pacific over the next decade or two.But even without actual war, the rivalry between China and the United States will be the global rivalry in the first decades of the 21st century, the rivalry that will force other countries to take sides, they write.
Bernstein, who is a New York Times book critic and was Time magazines first Beijing bureau chief in 1980, spoke on Sino-American relations here while discussing his new book. He said that despite occasional gestures of harmony in the relations, the stage of strategic cooperation between the two countries is being replaced by rivalry. There is a kind of ominous tone in Chinas statements towards the United States.
Bernstein, who is a historian by training and was a fellow at the Freedom Forums Media Studies Centre between 1991 and 1992, said relations between the US and China are destined to be complicated.
The book, which is co-authored by Munro, who was Time magazines bureau chief in Hong Kong and New Delhi and was a correspondent in Beijing for The Globe and Mail of Toronto, focusses on what is described as Chinas aggressive effort to become the dominant power in Asia and the amateurish vacillations of recent US policy towards Beijing.
India Abroad News Service
The authors have based their conclusions about continuing conflict in Sino-American relations on two propositions.
The first is that China, after floundering for more than a century, is now taking up the great power role that it believes to be its historic legacy. The authors said that within a few years, China will be the largest economy in the world and it is on its way to becoming a formidable military power as well.
China, they write, is an ambitious power whose goal is to dominate Asia, not by invading or occupying neighbouring nations, but by being so much more powerful than they are that nothing will be allowed to happen in East Asia without Chinas tacit consent.
Second, the U.S. has for at least 100 years pursued a consistent goal in Asia which, the authors say, is to prevent any single country from dominating that region. Since this (dominate) is precisely what China seeks to do, its goals and interests are bound to collide, and they are colliding in an area that is rapidly eclipsing Europe in economic and strategic importance, they say.
Mr Bernstein noted during the discussion that the absorption of Hong Kong by China will provide the latter with the worlds busiest deep water port and container terminal, a major naval base. In 1999 the Portuguese colony of Macao will revert to Chinese control. This will in turn complete Beijings extension of its sovereignty to the entire historic Chinese mainland.
But Mr Bernstein maintained that it is Taiwan which remains a really potential flashpoint in Sino-American relations. He said Taiwan sits in the middle of the sea routes that supply all of the oil and raw materials to Japan, the most important U.S. ally. The balance of power in the region would become upset in case of Chinese control of Taiwan, he said.
Referring to Taiwan, the authors note in the preface to the book that here is an area where the two countries not only have directly antagonistic goals, but each of them may one day find itself required to fight to attain its goals.
The 1996 face-off in the Taiwan Strait, they say, could presage future face-offs as an ever more powerful, assertive, nationalistic China manoeuvres to retake what it deems to be a part of its national territory.
However, Mr Bernstein said at the Centre that if the U.S. government and the American people accept shrinkage of American influence in the region, then there will be little problem. But I dont think that it will.
Mr Bernstein said he felt that measures like withdrawal of the most favoured nation (MFN) status to Beijing were not good. Its a silly assumption that if we do not grant MFN, then China as a problem is going to vanish, he said.
China is destined to be a great power, he said, and we must engage China and counter China as the future looks complicated and conflictual.
-India Abroad News Service (Credit Mandatory) ends/5.5.97