Congress Rabri Devi
This is a comment on the Congress, not Mrs Gandhi who remains an unknown commodity. Where does she stand on the core political, social, economic and foreign policy issues of the day? Even if it might be expected that she can draw crowds, what is she going to say to them? Will Bofors haunt her? How much does she understand of the political process, and how treacherous can it be? Will she bring back the imperial and imperious style into the running of the party in which she is already the most powerful person? Will she remain an extra-constitutional authority or assume formal office? If the advent of Rabri Devi was a bad joke, why is Sonia Gandhi different? Because (it is assumed) she belongs to People Like Us?
And yet, just as Rabri Devi has proved to be a passable chief minister, Sonia Gandhi may do the Congress some good. She has learnt Hindi, she will encourage some enthusiasm in the party rank and file, she could stop the steady stream of deserters from the party, she could campaign actively and make a difference in a score or more seats; in short, she could provide leadership. And if Sitaram Kesri is dethroned (as he should be without further ado), the Congress might even be able to present an acceptable person as a counterpoint to the BJPs Vajpayee.
Insofar as no one expects any single party to get a clear majority in the next Lok Sabha, the critical question is which party gets the most seats, so that it is invited first by the president to try and form a government? Over the past couple of weeks, it had become a foregone conclusion that this mantle would fall on the BJP. No one can be sure any more. It is extraordinary that an Italian-born woman, who reluctantly took Indian citizenship only when her husband was to enter Parliament, someone with a well-known aversion to politics, should bring this about.
So what is this election about? Stable government, says the BJP, and it is right. Most businessmen (and a lot of middle class voters) would welcome a BJP-led coalition because they can be reasonably sure that such a government will last a full five years, and provide a swadeshi brand of liberalisation to boot (read protection). But stability could just as easily be a casualty if the BJP gets adventurist with its core RSS/VHP agenda. This explains why the BJP is trying hard to focus attention on stability and not on its old hobby-horses.
The Congress so far has been able to project nothing. What it will project now is still uncertain. It too could lay equal claim to the stability plank, but can it re-occupy the space in Indian politics which it has vacated as being perhaps the only mainstream party that is completely inclusivist, for instance? Rebuilding its old caste coalition will be difficult, but the minority vote might come more easily. Just as easily, though, Sonia Gandhi herself could become the issue and lay the seeds for a new divisiveness (Ram rajya or Rome rajya, asks the BJP). In short, there are more questions than answers just now. But the country can look forward to a more genuine contest at the hustings.