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Last Updated : Jun 25 1999 | 12:00 AM IST

Technical analysis indicates that a 30 per cent appreciation in pivotals from the current levels is possible. A report

It hasn't been a good year for the stock market. It's been a phenomenal year with prices surging after a four-year bear market. On January 1, 1999, the bellwether BSE Sensex opened at 3064 points and it closed out Christmas week at 4969 points which was a gain of 62 per cent. The 50-stock NSE Nifty did even better with a 67 per cent return.

The rupee-dollar equation remained reasonably stable with the greenback strengthening to Rs 43.52 from January levels of Rs 42.47. Thus dollar-term returns were also substantial given the marginal depreciation. The foreign institutional investors were obviously happy, being buyers to the tune of Rs 6,353 crore.

This rally defied the political instability of a government falling in March and also rode out the Kargil crisis. It was however backed by economic fundamentals in that GDP expansion promises to be higher this fiscal. All the key corporate growth signals are good.

The best gauge of a sustainable rally is breadth and volume. This rally has been very broad. As many as 545 scrips have seen 100 per cent plus appreciation since January. As many as 81 scrips have risen more than ten-fold.

The advance-decline ratio for the year is very strong since 3129 scrips have risen while 904 have declined. The volume factor is als

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First Published: Jun 25 1999 | 12:00 AM IST

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