Law Of Large Numbers

The reforms popularised economic policy issues more than ever before. But this popularity has somewhat overshadowed the fact that some long run `fundamentals of the economy are in seriously bad shape. Population growth is the most important. It is a sobering thought for anyone with exaggerated expectations from reforms, that there is no historical example in the world where development occurred despite 2 per cent plus population growth.Demographers do not foresee a marked slowdown in the problem regions, the congested and poor northern states, until well into the first half of the 21st century. The only comparable country, China, is already far ahead of India in demographic transition.

A great deal of research has been done to explain north Indias demographic jam. Little of it, unfortunately, has been highlighted in the mass media. Usually, three types of cause work to lower fertility: desire to have fewer children, the technology to enact it, and the knowledge of and access to the technology. The last two factors ceased to be key issues since the late