The country is losing Rs 23,200 crore annually due to depletion of natural resources, water, soil and forests. The loss will mount in the years ahead if long-term policies are not evolved to enhance these resources, the Tata Energy Research Institute (Teri) has said.
Disclosing the findings of Teri's study, `Green India 2047' on environmental degradation in the country since independence and measures needed in the next 50 years to reverse this trend, Teri director R K Pachauri said with the present rate of natural resource depletion, we are passing on a high cost economy to future generation. The cost of agriculture output would go up considerably, he cautioned.
The study reveals that by 2017, the country will be `water stressed' and per capita water availability will decline from 2,300 cubic metres in 1997 to 1,600 cubic metres in 2017. Some regions will have a severe water problem, it points out. Already, in the east, flowing rivers between Pennar and Kanyakumari, the availability is as low as 400 cubic metres per capita per year.
Presenting the executive summary of the study, Pachauri said prospects relating to water resources are frightening unless better demand-side management and supply enhancement policies are put into action with the active participation of the people.
The full report of the study will be released by Prime Minister I K Gujral, on Wednesday.
In agriculturally important states of Punjab and Haryana, over-exploitation of groundwater has become a serious problem, the study states.
In 12 districts of Punjab and three of Haryana, exploitation of groundwater is more than its recharge. In Mehsana district in Gujarat and Coimbatore district in Tamil Nadu, groundwater aquifers have been permanently depleted.
The number of stressed groundwater blocks have increased from 253 in 1984-85 to 422 in 1992-93.
The over-exploitation of groundwater will lead to high cost of extraction in the future. This will severely affect the small and marginal farmers.
Stating that the present policies and institutional framework have been responsible for the decline in the water resources, the study says a well-defined system of property rights to water that restricts individual and collective withdrawals has been absent.
The study shows that 57 per cent of the country's area or 1,880 lakh hectares is affected by soil degradation. This has resulted in a massive loss of agricultural output, estimated at 11 per cent to 26 per cent or Rs 8,900 crore to Rs 23,200 crore in 1997.
With the increasing population, the pressure to release forest land for subsistence, agriculture, industries, power, irrigation, housing and urban development has gone up substantially.
'It is a daunting challenge to produce more food, fuelwood, fodder, timber and non-wood forest produce from a dwindling biomass resource base and at the same time maintain the minimum forest area for environmental and ecological stability,' the study says.
At present, the demand for fuelwood is nearly six times the sustainable supply, while the demand for industrial wood is more than twice the sustainable supply.
Inter-sectoral interventions which aim to divert energy consumption away from fuelwood will become increasingly important.
The study has also made recommendations for tackling air pollution, water pollution and solid waste.
Outlining ways for addressing the problem of air pollution, the study suggests 12 per cent shift towards public transport, phasing out of two-stroke engines, use of cleaner fuels, enforcement of emission norms recommended by central pollution control board by 2000 will lead to a reduction of 53 per cent in total emissions.
The study emphasises the need for investment in sewage treatment plants from where the treated water could be directed for irrigation.
It says if the treatment capacity of sewage remains at 10 per cent of the total generation, the pollution load from the domestic sector would approximately double by 2047.
Stressing the need for generation of wealth from waste, the study urges municipal corporations to restructure their waste management system to separate organic matter and compost it, extract recyclables and recycle them.
This will reduce the requirement for land by more than 50 per cent and environmental impact will be reduced dramatically.
By the year 2047, the country would have to handle about 300 million tonnes of solid waste, 449.8 million tonnes of coal ash and up to 60 times the current quantum of packaging paper entering the waste streams. This would have serious burden on social and industrial infrastructure.
To avoid such a situation, the study calls for development of viable coal gasification technology, use of coal ash as building material and recycling of all waste paper.
Further, it recommends greater focus on the services sector so that large share of the economic output in the country comes from services rather than manufacturing.
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