Sunny Skies Brighten Rabi Crop Outlook

The rabi crop outlook, which appeared murky till last month, has improved considerably thanks to favourable weather in most parts of the country in the past six weeks.

Not only have crops been re-sown in most of the fields which were hit by intermittent rains and overcast skies last December, the incidence of pests and diseases has also subsided.

It is, however, still too early to estimate the likely production, though it seems almost certain that last years record rabi grain harvest of 93.82 million tonnes is unlikely to be equalled.

In the case of wheat, the main rabi cereal, conflicting reports are emanating from states departments of food and those dealing with agriculture. While the food departments, responsible for procuring the grains for the central pool, are projecting a tangible output loss compared with last year, their agriculture counterparts are confident of coming close to last seasons figures despite the initial setback to the crops.

Krishi Bhawan too appears confident of bagging a wheat harvest quite close to last years 68.8 million tonnes. Its optimism is based largely on belated crop coverage in the areas that could not be planted in time due to bad weather, adequate availability of inputs, improved weather conditions since the second week of January and reduction in the pest and disease build-up thanks to a prolonged sunny spell in the last fortnight of January and the first fortnight of February. Besides, water storage level in most of the important reservoirs is relatively higher than last years corresponding level. On a countrywide scale, the total water storage in 63 reservoirs is 19 per cent higher than last years storage and 25 per above the average storage in the past 10 years.

However, agriculture experts do not share Krishi Bhawans optimism. While agreeing that production prospects have improved substantially in the past month or so, they are apprehensive about the level of yield in late sown fields. They are also concerned about the pests and diseases which continue to threaten standing crops despite the reduction in infestation in the past few weeks.

According to reports received by the agriculture ministry from states, the standing mustard crop, now in its pod-grain formation stage, has been attacked by fungal diseases like Alternaria Blight and white rust in Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

The dreaded pest heliothis (a caterpillar feeding on the plants of a variety of crops) has been noticed on sunflower in Karnataka and Maharashtra; gram in Haryana, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and UP; and cotton in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Cases of brown rust disease afflicting the wheat crop have been reported from several areas in Madhya Pradesh.

The net area under wheat is officially estimated at 24.96 million hectares this year, down 2.3 per cent from last seasons 25.55 million hectares. The decline is largely in UP and Bihar. While the crop sown at the normal time, which accounts for about 80 per cent of this years total crop, is about to start bearing ears (the grain-bearing upper portion of the plant), the one planted later is still in the vegetative growth stage. The prevailing temperature between now and March-end will decide the extent of grain formation and development, and hence crop yield.

The acreage under rabi coarse cereals is more or less normal thanks to expansion in jowar (sorghum) area. Barley acreage has shrunk marginally. The total area under these and other minor rabi coarse grains is estimated at 7.23 million hectares, up from 7.01 million hectares.

In the case of oilseeds, the sowing of rapeseed, mustard, safflower and linseed is complete while that of summer groundnut and summer sunflower is still in progress. Rapeseed/mustard is reported to have gained in area 6.94 million hectares, against 6.54 million hectares last year. Sunflower is also likely to cover larger acreage. The area coverage under rabi pulses is estimated to have improved on the whole. The total area is assessed officially at 12.82 million hectares, against 12.55 million hectares in the last season. Gram occupies about 7.24 million hectares this year, against 7.07 million hectares last year.