World Tourism Organisation study sees the possibility of low orbit space tours becoming a practice by 2020
The latest global forecast on tourism by the World Tourism Organisation sees the possibility of low orbit space tours becoming a practice by the year 2020.
Entitled Tourism: 2020 Vision, the study was presented by organisations special adviser Dawie J DeVilliars at the South-South-Eeast Asian Convention on Tourism which concluded here yesterday.
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The forecast concludes that there will be no slowdown in the pace of growth of international tourism, reaching 692 million in the year 2000, more than one billion in 2010 and 1.6 billion in 2020.
Europe will continue to be the most visited tourist destination with a projected total of 717 million tourists in 2020, that is 382 million more tourists than in 1995, though the growth rate is assessed below world average. Countries of East Asia and the Pacific will continue the strong performance achieved in the 80s and 90s, overtaking by 2010 the Americas to become the second most visited destination.
Growth prospects for Americas are seen as more sluggish, particularly for North America, whereas forecasts for South, Latin America and the Caribbean are much more promising.
Africa and Middle-East are seen as having good prospects. The Middle-East will be the second fastest growing region after East Asia and Pacific. The volume of international tourist arrivals in South Asia is expected at 19 million in 2020, almost five times higher than 1995, but still relatively low.
On the trends of regional market share, 2020 Vision anticipates three major changes:
A strong erosion in the market share of Europe and, to a lesser extent, Americas.
East Asia and the Pacific will almost double its share of world tourist arrivals from 14 to 27 % between 1995 and 2020.
New markets will also appear in the remaining three regions of Africa, Middle-East and South Asia although on a much smaller volume.
The study anticipates the top 10 receiving countries undergoing a major change with China ( currently not in the top 10) becoming the leading destination by 2020. Hong Kong, if treated as a separate entity, will also become one of the main destinations.
Also entering the top 10 will be the Russian Federation, while the fast growth Asian destinations of Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia, along with South Africa and Turkey will move rapidly up the league table, albeit not reaching the top 10.
The major industrialised countries will remain the main producers of tourists aboard. Dealing with the possible direction and underlying trends of the tourism industry in the next two or three decades, the forecast has some interesting points to make.
It forecasts that electronic technology becoming all powerful in influencing destination choice and distribution.