Uncertainty Prevails

For the third time in 18 years "" July 1979, February 1991 and now "" the Congress has brought down a government which had been surviving solely on its support. And on the last two occasions it has done so before the budget for the next financial year can be passed. But the withdrawal of support this time around is qualitatively different. Unlike the earlier two episodes, this time there has been a strong provocation from the incumbent government. The United front government has not, especially in the recent past, been adhering to the basic tenets of a coalition government. The trigger has, of course, been the development in Uttar Pradesh.

But, howsoever displeased the Congress might be with these developments "" where a BSP/BJP government has been installed largely due to the ineptness and internal politics of the United Front "" the Congress could surely have waited until after the budget had been passed. By not allowing that, it has once again drawn the country into the vortex of high political uncertainty which may now be dispelled only after a fresh general election.

The fact is that the action could not have come at a more inopportune time. A major consequence of all this will be an adverse effect on the business optimism in the country. Now that the budget presented by Chidambaram a few weeks ago will not be passed even the general mood of optimism which it had generated all around has disappeared. Those, like Moodys, who had warned against continued political instability getting in the way of economic reform and therefore growth, now stand vindicated. Not just foreign investors but Indian businessmen as well will now have to rethink their strategies.

On the previous two occasions, when Congress withdrew support, a fresh general election had had to be held. But this time it has staked claim to forming the government. And unless a miracle intervenes, it is difficult to see, at this stage at least, how the Congress can put together a majority in the Lok Sabha. Ever since Sitaram Kesri became the Congress president last October, it had been on the cards that his party would withdraw support to the United Front government. However, in recent weeks, the danger had receded quite substantially. This was partly because the Congress itself was "" and continues to be "" a divided house and partly because of the spectacular budget which the UF government had presented. The latter, especially, had made it hard for a strong political offensive to be launched. This is what makes the decision to bring down the government all the more surprising.

What now? It would be hazardous in the extreme to venture a guess or to bet on a Congress government surviving in office for very long. The arithmetic in the Lok Sabha and the antipathies it represents will be hard to overcome. Yet, stranger things have been known to happen in politics "" such as the BSP-BJP tie-up in UP for a second time and the DMK-TMC tie-up in Tamil Nadu. Therefore, all that can one hoped for at this stage is that India will not be subjected to another bout of prolonged political instability. It can ill-afford the luxury. But the chances appear slim.