Waiting For The Kill
a more assertive role both within the party and outside, says Virendra Kapoor
The outcome was expected. Incumbency had given Sitaram Kesri a head start over competition in the race for the Congress presidents post. His brazenness did the rest. At the end of an immensely flawed election, he has pipped both Sharad Pawar and Rajesh Pilot and is now preening himself as the duly elected leader of the countrys oldest political organisation.
Narasimha Rao must be rueing the day he nominated Kesri, who had sworn life-long loyalty to him any number of times, his successor at the head of the Congress. Once there, Kesri was quick to turn on Rao. The hitherto nondescript leader from Bihar now sought to become the foremost leader of the party. And he has. Thanks to the ingrained habit of Congressmen to sing hallelujahs to whoever happens to wear the tinny crown. Times, however, are long past when the leader of the Congress was almost by right considered the undisputed leader of the country as well. And despite what the spin doctors of Kesri might say, those times are unlikely to return in a hurry.
But one can be sure it wouldnt be for want of trying on the part of Kesri and the coterie that has come to surround him. Notwithstanding the farcical poll, marred by well-founded complaints of rigging, Kesri would henceforth play a more assertive role. Simultaneously he will proceed on two fronts in order: (a) to extinguish the remnants of challenge to his authority in the party and (b) to push the Congress centre-stage by seizing the initiative from the United Front.
In the first flush of victory Kesri might abjure any sign of rancour and bitterness towards Pawar and Pilot, but there can be little doubt that attempts to marginalise the duo would begin almost immediately. After all, those who jumped on the Kesri bandwagon had done so in the hope of extracting a price for their support. Ambitious leaders like Arjun Singh wouldnt countenance a situation where Pawar and Pilot flourished much to the chagrin of those who had an eye on leading the Congress in the post-Kesri era. At 81, Kesri wasnt getting any younger. Whereas Arjun Singh, a perennial hopeful for wearing the mantle of Congress leader, still believed that he could step into his shoes with a little help from the lady at 10 Janpath.
Admittedly, given his woeful score in the poll, the chances of Pawar forcing a split in the Congress might have receded, at least for the time being. Kesri would rub more salt on his wounds when the same doctored electoral college which returned him with a huge majority chooses the partys working committee next. Pawar himself may have no difficulty getting elected but the character of the CWC is bound to reflect the one-sidedness of the electoral college. In the winner-takes-all Congress regime, Pawar will find himself increasingly isolated. That even from his backyard Murli Deora could manage to steal the presidentship of the Mumbai Regional Congress Committee speaks of the forces arrayed against the desi Maratha warrior.
The elected boss of the Congress could also snuff out the last vestiges of opposition to him by coopting Sonia Gandhi into the CWC. Given the cold vibes between her and Pawar, that should further stymie the latters ambitions. Sonias decision to enroll herself as a primary member couldnt be an innocent one-off move. Clearly, she was moving according to a well-crafted strategy. The membership of the CWC could be the next logical step for the heir to the Nehru-Gandhi family legacy. Craven Congressmen who shout Sonia lao, desh bachao would have further reason to rally round her and Kesri in the expectation that the party would soon play a stellar role in the polity.
After having acquired an unassailable position in the party, Kesri would endeavour to become far more assertive. Already, he is interpreting his flawed victory as an endorsement of his decision to remove Deve Gowda. He could well try to put into action the second part of that plan which he inaugurated last Easter Sunday, by seeking to replace I K Gujral as the prime minister at the head of a Congress-led coalition. For, make no mistake about it, Kesri is burning with the ambition to become prime minister.
The sordid goings-on in the Janata Dal, which have brought the core of the ruling Front close to the brink of a split, could well provide Kesri with an opening to carry out the putsch against Gujral. Despite the show of bonhomie between him and the prime minister, Kesri is too shrewd and ambitious to let go of an opportunity. With Laloo Yadav playing the spoil sport, matters could come to a head sooner than most people think. Given Yadavs excellent rapport with Kesri, and the latters felt need to make Congress relevant again in his home state, the two could join hands in a mutually beneficial arrangement.
The UF cookie, in any case, is bound to crumble soon with Laloo cocking a snook at everyone in the fodder scam. Also to be noted is a dejected Gowdas prediction that he would make a bid for come-back in the election to be held later this year.
Kesri might have an opportunity to manoeuvre his way to centre-stage should the current impasse over the presidential candidate persist. A second term for the present incumbent would infinitely improve his chances to supplant Gujral as the prime minister. Whether or not Dr Sharma was promised a second term by Kesri when the latter toppled Gowda, should the Congress plump for him and not for K R Narayanan, the fragile UF could well crack up. For, the Leftists almost certainly would back Narayanan. Kesri would want Sharma to continue.
And the BJP, which has the largest block of votes in the presidential poll, wouldnt be above doing a deal which allowed it to have its own candidate as vice-president. Gujral and company could well and truly be isolated in this scenario.