1 billion PCs in use by 2008: Forrester

By end-2008 there will be more than 1 billion personal computers (PCs) in use worldwide, according to a new report from Forrester Research.

It predicts there will be more than two billion PCs in use by 2015, representing an over 12 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2003 and 2015.

Emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China will account for more than 775 million new PCs by 2015. While it took 27 years to reach one billion PCs, Forrester says it will take only five years to reach the next billion, owing to advancing technology, lower prices and global demand on the part of a technology-aware population.

"There is nothing more important to the long-term health of the technology industry - and personal technology in particular - than the ability to deliver relevant, accessible and affordable technology to the billions of people worldwide who have not been exposed to it," said Simon Yates, vice-president and research director Forrester Research.

There is unpredictability ahead, however, according to the report. Vendors are used to the predictability of buyers in mature markets, but high volume launches into emerging markets are risky.

Vendors won't have the luxury of introducing products on a small scale to test the market before going into full production because the economics will force suppliers to focus on bringing volume to market more quickly at much greater risk.

"There are risks," said Yates. "It is safe to assume that life cycles will be longer in emerging markets. Vendors, accustomed to mature markets where the average life cycle is between four and five years, will need to have a deep understanding of how to work in these markets and, with less of a market for replacement PCs, will need to band together to scale production for these emerging regions."