Global mobile industry may lose $20 bn this year: TNS

The global mobile industry is likely to lose a whopping $20 billion (about Rs 94,000 crore) this year due to fall in demand especially in emerging markets such as India on account of the economic downturn, a survey has said.     

According to global market information and insight group TNS, people are suffering the effects of recession as the number of consumers looking to buy a mobile phone in the next six months fell to 23 per cent from 28 per cent in the year ago, "leaving a potential black hole of $20 billion".     

The drastic fall in demand for mobile handsets was particularly noticeable in emerging markets where handset sales are not subsidised and incomes are lower.     

"In China the demand fell from 32 per cent to 24 per cent, while in India, demand dropped from 30 per cent to just 8 per cent," TNS said, adding, "on top of delaying purchases, consumers are looking to cut back on their monthly spend as well, hurting service providers".     

The study, however, pointed out that there is likely to be demand for new and improved products as early as 2010 — and mobile handset makers need to be ready for that.     

"When the economic situation improves and consumer confidence is restored, the market will be flooded with buyers eager for new and exciting products," said TNS Technology Sector Development Manager Sam Curtis.

Curtis further said: "With product development cycles of 12-18 months, it is the companies that are investing currently that will reap the benefits of this upsurge. Companies that are too cautious during this difficult time could miss a huge opportunity if their product portfolios are not relevant to the 2010 consumer."     

According to the study, despite the fact that only 5 per cent of consumers own a qwerty (a phone with a keyboard style key pad) or touchscreen device globally, 13 per cent say they will buy such a device for their next purchase.     

In the US, this figure is as high as 35 per cent, reflecting the success of the iPhone and BlackBerry brands. This is around 3 per cent in India.     

New devices are also rapidly changing consumer preferences in many markets offering opportunities to sell multi-functional devices.     

In France, 21 per cent of consumers say that GPS is an important driver of choice for their next mobile purchase compared to only 4 per cent a year ago, while in Korea, 33 per cent of consumers are looking for a strong mobile TV application on their phone compared to 20 per cent a year ago.     

With new functionalities will come additional revenue opportunities for manufacturers and service providers alike, the survey examined.