Tech sector outlook to remain bullish next 6 quarters

Infosys outlook and TCS numbers are case-specific

This is inspite of a fairly conservative guidance from Infosys and poor numbers for Q4FY05 from TCS, industry sources feel. This positive outlook is based on the current state of the business cycle and dynamics of global business.

The industry is viewing the Infosys numbers as just being cautious in view of the fact that a boom has been on for some time and there may be some amount of review in client spend.

"The global tech spending outlook is extremely positive and we do not see any slowdown over the next 12-18 months. This sector has had a good run and there is some amount of review. This does not mean that revenues will dip. It is just that 'throwing caution to the wind' kind of spending is being reined in and prudent spending will be the approach," said Ranjan Biswas, an analyst at Ernst & Young who tracks the IT industry. "There is absolutely no reason to panic," he asserted.

Seconding this, Ravi Ramu, CFO, MphasiS said: "We do not see any apprehension in spending by our clients. The kind of doubts cropping up in the industry is more to do with the fact that large IT companies, by the simple law of business, will not be able to sustain the same 50 per cent growth year after year. The base is pretty large and the growth of large companies cannot sustain the same momentum for a long period."

He added that the big surge in offshoring had been on an overdrive in the recent past and now it is cruising.

"This in no way indicates that tech spending is coming down," he highlighted. And if spending does not come down and offshoring continues at an even pace, the outlook is positive for the Indian software sector.

Noted another industry analyst: "The Indian IT industry will continue with its good run going forward and the Infosys and TCS statements and numbers are more to do with their internal operations. While Infosys has said that their clients may hold back in the first quarter, TCS' fourth quarter numbers were due to quite a few one time expenses. This is not an indication that tech spending is slowing down. So it will not have an impact on the software services sector."