Statsguru: 6 charts show the clock is ticking on achieving climate goals

Delegates from across the world are coming together this week for the international climate summit, the Conference of Parties, or COP28. The high-profile meeting in Dubai from November 30 aims to take stock of progress made on dealing with the challenges of climate change.

India, China and the United States were together responsible for half the global emissions in 2022. Fossil carbon emissions in India have increased by 54.4 per cent between 2010 and 2022, faster than other countries, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research shows. Globally, they rose 14 per cent (chart 1).

In India, emissions from the power industry were the highest (46.6 per cent), followed by industrial combustion (21.7 per cent), transport (11.1 per cent) and buildings (7.9 per cent) (chart 2).

The dependence on coal remains high. While the percentage of renewables in installed capacity has increased, when it comes to generation, growth is lagging. In 2021-22, renewable energy (RE) accounted for 11.5 per cent of the total electricity generated compared to 75.1 per cent of thermal power. In 2018-19, RE’s share was 9.2 per cent (chart 3).

Rising emissions have a direct impact on health. Welfare cost or the price a population is willing to pay to avoid premature deaths due to air pollution increased to 8.4 per cent of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 from 6 per cent in 2010, shows data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). For China, it increased from 9.9 per cent to 10.7 per cent. The US recorded a decline from 1.8 per cent to 1.3 per cent (chart 4).

 

Indians lost $26.5 per capita due to air pollution, according to a study in The Lancet titled “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019”. The loss in 15 states and Union Territories was higher than the India average. Delhi topped this disturbing list with a per capita loss of $62 (chart 5).

While India has taken some positive measures, the country is likely to miss its emissions target for 2030 by 8 per cent, according to the United Nations Emissions Gap Report 2023.

Under the current policies, India’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions will be 3.1 tonnes per person in 2030 compared to the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of 2.8 tonnes per person. However, the country is likely to perform better than its peers (chart 6).

 

As the world races against the climate clock, COP28 has its task cut out.