G20 Summit 2024: Deadline to phase out fossil fuel appears elusive

India opposes curbs on hydrocarbon investments, calls for expanding decarbonisation efforts, renewables

As the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, nears its conclusion, hopes of a definitive timeline to phase out fossil fuels appear slim.

 

Despite growing international momentum to strengthen decarbonisation efforts, India, while reiterating its commitment to achieve a net-zero emissions target by 2070, has held firm against setting a hard deadline for ending crude oil usage or halting hydrocarbon exploration.

 

While some nations have pushed for bolder climate action, sources indicate that a consensus on fossil fuel reduction remains elusive, with geopolitical and economic factors playing a central role.

 

“Given the state of talks, it appears unlikely that a unanimous decision in favour of capping fossil fuel usage by a certain date would emerge from Rio de Janeiro,” a highly placed source said. “However, there is increasing willingness to expand or advance sectoral decarbonisation deadlines from many nations,” the official said, adding that India remained in favour of progressively strengthening decarbonisation targets.

 

The two-day annual meeting of G20 leaders, which ends on Tuesday, is taking place a week after United States President-elect Donald Trump signalled a major rise in US crude output. This has also impacted the talks, a senior official said.

 

“The outgoing US administration is yet to call for an outright phase-out of fossil fuel. On the other hand, there is resistance from Russia, China and Saudi Arabia,” he stressed.

 

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India’s share in global oil demand was 5.5 per cent in 2023 — much below the United States’ (20 per cent) and China's (16.1 per cent). However, it is rising at a fast clip and is set to hit 6.6 per cent over the next five years. India is poised to lead oil demand growth in 2024, with a projected increase of 200,000 barrels per day, surpassing China for the first time, IEA has said.

 

The issue has also been furiously debated at the ongoing 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or the Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, commonly referred to as COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan. A coalition of 100 countries had backed the demand for an end-date to the use of unabated coal in 2023, when it was raised for the first time in over three decades of climate negotiations.

 

Curbs on hydrocarbon investments

 

New Delhi has also argued against any move to curb investments into expanding or exploring new pools of hydrocarbon resources at the G20.

 

"We continue to invest in the development and extraction of oil and gas resources as needed, while simultaneously exploring carbon-free alternatives and renewable energy,” the senior official said. “We cannot have a situation where such investments are capped globally since our developmental needs and energy security cannot be compromised. This has also been our position at COP29," the official added.

 

Curbing further investments in traditional fossil fuels has remained a sticky issue in the past few years.

 

In May 2022, the G7 countries agreed to end taxpayer funding for oil, gas, and coal projects overseas.

 

G20 host Brazil has been walking a tight rope as it negotiates for green goals, sources pointed out. While the country has the highest share of clean electricity among G20 members, with 89 per cent of it coming from clean sources in 2022, its crude oil exports touched a 10-year high of $42 billion that year.

 

The G20 nations had pledged to phase out and rationalise fossil fuel subsidies “over the medium term” during the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009. The G20 New Delhi Leaders' Declaration last year had reiterated this.

 

However, between 2010 and 2022, only 32 per cent of G20 countries reduced fossil fuel subsidies as a share of GDP, the London School of Economics recently pointed out. And according to the International Monetary Fund, fossil fuel subsidies surged to a record $7 trillion in 2022.