India to account for 12% of global m-cap by 2075; GDP to surpass US

The US-based investment bank said the growth in EMs will continue to outpace that in the developed market, with 7 of the top 10 world economies becoming EMs by 2075

Goldman Sachs has predicted the Indian economy and market will be among the top globally by 2050 and even surpass the US by 2075.

In a report titled, The Path to 2075-Capital Market Size and Opportunity, the US-based investment bank said the growth in Emerging Markets (EM) will continue to outpace that in the developed market, with 7 of the top 10 world economies becoming EMs by 2075.

“We expect EM growth to continue to outstrip DM over the remainder of this decade (3.8 per cent versus 1.8 per cent). In 2050, we project that the world’s five largest economies will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany. By 2075, China, the US, and India are likely to remain the three largest economies and, with the right policies and institutions, seven of the world’s top ten economies are projected to be EMs,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head - Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs. Thanks to the superior economic growth, EMs and Indian capital markets are expected to grow in stature over the coming decades.

“Our projections imply that EMs’ share of global equity market capitalisation will rise from around 27 per cent currently to 35 per cent in 2030, 47 per cent in 2050, and 55 per cent in 2075. We expect India to record the largest increase in global market cap share – from a little under 3 per cent in 2022 to 8 per cent in 2050, and 12 per cent in 2075 – reflecting a favourable demographic outlook and rapid GDP per capita growth,” Hatzius said.

Changing pegging order: Goldman's projections imply India will be ahead of the US by 2075

World’s largest economies (measured in US$)
1980	2000	2022	2050	2075
US	US	US	China	China
Japan	Japan	China	US	India
Germany	Germany	Japan	India	US
France	UK	Germany	Indonesia	Indonesia
UK	France	India	Germany	Nigeria
Italy	China	UK	Japan	Pakistan
China	Italy	France	UK	Egypt
Canada	Canada	Canada	Brazil	Brazil
Argentina	Mexico	Russia	France	Germany
Spain	Brazil	Italy	Russia	UK

India's contribution to global market cap is estimated to increase sharply
	Share in global mcap (%)
	2022	2050	2075
India	3	8	12
EM	27	47	55
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research