India GDP

India's GDP growth may slip to around 6 per cent and retail inflation could rise to RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent in the current fiscal, if the Indian crude basket price averages USD 120 a barrel, EY India said on Wednesday. EY India Chief Policy Advisor DK Srivastava said, although room for policy interventions is limited, policymakers need to consider upward revision in the repo rate and accelerated diversification of sources of crude supply as the price of the Indian crude basket (ICB) may rise further if the West Asian crisis persists. "If the ICB price averages USD 120 per barrel in FY27, India's real GDP growth may slip to about 6 per cent and CPI inflation may increase to 6 per cent... To minimise the adverse impact on fiscal deficit, increased energy prices should be passed on to the retailers to a relatively larger extent," Srivastava said. The April 2026 release of the US Energy Information Administration EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude oil ..

As the economy becomes more regionally differentiated, national and state averages are no longer enough to track growth

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2027, according to a report by the United Nations. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said in the report released Monday that economies in South and South-West Asia grew by 5.4% in 2025, compared to 5.2% in 2024, driven largely by strong growth in India. India's growth edged up to 7.4% in 2025, "supported by robust consumption, especially from the rural economy along with goods and services tax rate cuts, and export frontloading ahead of the United States' tariffs," the report, titled Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026, said. It said in India, economic activities moderated in the second half of 2025 as exports to the United States declined by 25 per cent following the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs in August 2025. The services sector remained a key growth driver. The report projected India to register a 6.4 per cent growth rate

India's GDP in domestic currency terms records a CAGR of 8.56 per cent between 2021 and 2025, reflecting highest economic growth among major economies

Rate cuts can now be ruled out and the question will be more on when there can be a rate hike. A clearer picture will emerge over the next few months

As India nears the $3,000 per capita mark, a coordinated push in skills, clean energy and AI could help it leapfrog the middle-income trap

If crude spikes to $150/bbl for a quarter, we see FY27 (GDP) growth at around 5.7 per cent, CPI inflation breaching 6 per cent and the CAD widening to around 3 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley said.

India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal could erode by around 1 percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the Middle East conflict persists through the next fiscal, an EY report said. The EY Economy Watch report said that several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilizers, cement and tires, could be directly impacted. Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances. It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilizers, and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and .

The fresh cut in growth estimate by Goldman's analysts follows a change in their assumptions on oil prices and the period of disruption to supplies

India is set to release a new GDP series with 2022–23 as the base year. But what exactly is GDP, how is it calculated, and why do revisions matter?

India’s economy expanded 7.8% in the October–December quarter of FY26, according to newly released national accounts data based on a revised GDP series with 2022–23 as the base year.

Deputy CM Eknath Shinde says Maharashtra is on track to contribute $1.5 trillion to India's GDP as infrastructure expansion and investment drive the state's growth

Tensions in West Asia, if sustained, could test the goldilocks mix of robust growth and stable inflation, Nomura said in a recent note.

A new GDP base year, US-Israel strikes on Iran, India's urban planning crisis, and artificial intelligence's impact on the IT sector dominate today's Opinion page

Economists expect India's FY27 growth to exceed 7 per cent under the new GDP series, supported by capex push and consumption, though trade tensions and El Nino risks loom

Economy expands 7.8% in Q3; manufacturing shines bright

India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q3FY26 under the new series, slightly slower than earlier quarters, while full-year FY26 growth is estimated higher at 7.6% compared to 7.1% in FY25

New 2022-23 GDP base may not change sector shares unless methodology is revised, as past shifts show sharp impact of statistical tweaks

Under previous methods, low nominal ‌GDP growth alongside low wholesale inflation created discrepancies by translating into higher real growth rates

Economists expect Q3 GDP growth to remain above 7 per cent, supported by a pickup in consumption and investment