It's BJP versus BSP in Phase-I of Uttar Pradesh polls

In Uttar Pradesh, 73 of 403 seats go to polls on Saturday in Phase-I of assembly elections. While both caste and communal polarisations play across the 15 districts that vote on Saturday, neither seems dominant, making this a tight contest.

Results of the last couple of assembly elections, and 2014 Lok Sabha polls, suggest western Uttar Pradesh (UP) sets the tone for the rest of the state. A party that has won a majority of western UP's 130 seats, has also gone on to win a majority across the state.

Western UP is also among the most prosperous and urbanised regions of the state. The first phase has Muslims playing a crucial role in several constituencies, as they make up 20 to 25 per cent of the local electorate, and even 30 per cent in some.

If the BJP is trying its best to repeat its 2014 Lok Sabha win, 73 of UP's 80 seats, other parties believe 2007 and 2012 assembly polls offer a better frame of reference. BJP is Bharatiya Janata Party.

If there are signs of a communal polarisation favouring the BJP in urban areas, there are also signs that many in the economically dominant Jat community have dropped their love for BJP; they are now a far cry from 2014 Lok Sabha polls; they are upset with the party, and they could vote for Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Earlier this week, BJP president Amit Shah had held meetings with the Jat leadership in Delhi to win them over. Dalits, particularly in rural areas, stand solidly behind Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), while the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance is serving up a buzz in urban areas.

Wounds from the Muzaffarnagar riots of September 2013 are yet to heal, despite efforts from both communities to mend fences. Demonetisation has irked, but it remains difficult to ascertain its influence on voting.

For 51-year-old Vikram Singh in Babri village near Shamli in Uttar Pradesh, Saturday's voting is more about community pride and prestige. Harvesting carrots along with his wife in his nearly two-acre farmland near Jat-dominated Sonjhwani village, Singh says the contest in the three riot-hit districts of Muzzafarnagar is primarily between BJP and Mayawati's BSP.

In Muzaffarnagar and surrounding areas, you can almost stare at the religious chasm, open right there. The Jats, filled with anger at the BJP, could still favour it, even as Behenji (Mayawati) emerges Muslims' first choice, largely because the party has fielded Muhammadan candidates. BSP's early announcement of candidates also seems to be helping.

Farming bowl

Referred to as India's sugar cane and wheat bowl, the area had suffered an economic meltdown over the past few years, thanks to mounting sugar cane dues and natural calamities such as hailstorm. The situation has eased up a bit, but there still are sugar mills that have started collecting cane this year, without clearing off previous years' dues.

The BJP is nervous at the prospect of Jats deserting the party. "The younger Jats might back BJP because of the Muzaffarnagar riots, but the older Jats are likely to return to Ajit Singh's RLD," Ravinder Pal, a timber merchant and political worker in Shamli, said.  But he offers a caveat: "Communal polarisation is sharper in these elections than in 2007 or 2012".

Development talk, government schemes, and even promises of prosperity are struggling to block out the caste-communal binary. Not that people are fully discounting the "good work" done by Akhilesh Yadav government, but the last-minute tie-up with Congress as well as ticket distribution could weigh on the performance of Samajwadi Party-Congress.

Be wary of families which looted UP, country: Modi

Taking up issues of dynastic politics and law and order to target Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday called it a tie-up between two families that have "looted" Uttar Pradesh and the country, and mocked Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi saying no leader has as many jokes on him as he does for his "childish" acts.

"When both families were separate, they caused so much destruction in the country and UP. What will happen when they have joined hands. If you want to save UP, you will have to save it from these families," he said addressing a rally at Bijnor.

With BJP locked in a tough fight in the state assembly polls, the prime minister dwelt at length on the "family rule" of the Yadav clan and cases of major crimes under its watch, besides "corruption" during the reign of Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati governments.

Modi, who has been accused by Congress of using foul language and repeatedly humiliating opposition after his raincoat jibe against former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, persisted with his shrill attack on rivals saying they have only served their families.

With Jats playing a key role in the two phases for which polling will be held on Saturday and Wednesday, respectively, he said a BJP government in the state will set up a farmers’ welfare fund named after Charan Singh, a noted Jat leader.

Clearing the dues of sugarcane farmers and waiving loans of small and marginal farmers, both promises being part of the BJP's manifesto, will be a priority if his party is voted to power, he said.

Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and the ruling Yadav family were the focus of his attack and speech.
Inputs from Press Trust of India

"I do not know Akhilesh Yadav much. I have met him a few times in meetings and it seemed to me after reading various reports that he is an educated young man who is trying to learn. I was hopeful that a young man will be fit for politics in 5-10 years.

"On the other hand there is a Congress leaders who does so many childish acts that if you do a search on computer, you will find that no other leader has as many jokes on him as he has.

"Even senior Congress leaders keep a distance from him.

When the leader avoided by his senior party leaders was embraced by Akhilesh, then I began doubting his wisdom. One can make blunders but not of this kind," Modi said, targeting the Congress vice president.

He said it is an alliance between two families, one of which "looted" the country and the other Uttar Pradesh.

He noted that so many members of the extended ruling Yadav family are MPs, MLAs and serving in various other capacities in government.

While Bijnor with about 2,000 villages has one MP, there are so many of them in Parliament, assembly and other government bodies from Safai, the family village of Akhilesh Yadav, he said.

They made one caste (Yadav) as their vote bank but served only their family, he said.