Opportunity, risks for India in Quad's Trump card to counter China

Grouping's first meeting under new US President reaffirms its commitment to Indo-Pacific security, though experts flag concerns, writes Bhaswar Kumar

The Quad’s first foreign ministers’ meeting under Donald Trump’s second term has dispelled doubts about the grouping’s significance to his administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Held on January 21, just hours after Trump’s inauguration, the meeting also reaffirmed the Quad’s shared commitment to countering China’s growing assertiveness. 

Comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, the Quad aims to foster an open, stable, and inclusive Indo-Pacific. However, China dismisses it as a Cold War construct.

  Hosted by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the meeting included India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japan’s Iwaya Takeshi, and Australia’s Penny Wong. Jaishankar described its timing as underscoring the Quad’s priority in the foreign policies of its member states.

  The joint statement issued after the talks in Washington reaffirmed the Quad’s commitment to a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, where “the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended””. It strongly opposed “unilateral actions aimed at changing the status quo by force or coercion”, referencing China’s assertive stance in the East and South China Seas and its claims over Taiwan. It added: “We look forward to advancing the work of the Quad in the coming months and will meet together on a regular basis as we prepare for the next Quad Leaders’ Summit hosted by India.”

  Ashok K Kantha, former ambassador to China, highlighted the bipartisan US commitment to the Quad, which has grown steadily since its revival under Trump in 2017. He noted that the upcoming Quad leaders’ summit in India signals continuity and the grouping’s strategic importance. “It is abundantly clear that the US remains invested in the Quad,” said Kantha.

  Harsh V Pant, vice-president of studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), agreed, emphasising that prioritising the Quad early in Trump’s term underscores its centrality to his foreign policy. “The Quad meeting is significant — it marks the first official international engagement of the Trump administration. The joint statement by the Quad foreign ministers is also very strong and sends a clear message to China,” Pant observed.

  Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary of India, also viewed the meeting's timing as a notable development, calling it a testament to the Quad’s enduring relevance. “The meeting underscored the US’ continued commitment to the Quad under Trump’s second term and resolved any reservations or doubts that may have existed on that front,” Saran said. He, however, urged careful observation of how the Quad’s agenda evolves in the coming months.

  The joint statement also stressed strengthening maritime, economic, and technological security amid rising threats and enhancing reliable and resilient supply chains. Pant noted that its integration of economic and technological concerns with security reflects the Quad’s adaptability. However, he warned this could signal a shift towards greater securitisation under Trump. 

  “The joint statement is strikingly open about the Quad’s security implications, a shift from its earlier reluctance to be seen as explicitly security-oriented. Under Trump and Rubio, there appears to be intent to move towards a more securitised framework,” Pant said.

  Abhijit Singh, visiting fellow at ORF and a former naval officer, echoed concerns about increased militarisation of the Quad. He warned that “Trump’s aggressive stance towards China and preference for military posturing could shift the Quad’s balance towards overt militarisation.”

  Such a development, he argued, might conflict with India’s strategic interests. Singh explained that India views the Quad as a platform to counterbalance China and prefers a multilateral approach that prioritises “dialogue, economic cooperation, and capacity building rather than outright military confrontation.” He said: “An overly militarised Quad risks alienating Asean countries and diluting its appeal as a constructive and stabilising force in the Indo-Pacific.”

  Pant argued that India may need to accommodate some degree of increased securitisation to gain leverage with the Trump administration, especially given limited room for trade compromises. He maintained that India can do so without compromising its strategic autonomy.

  Kantha, however, did not see signs of overt securitisation, stressing that security has always been central to the Quad. “The Quad is not intended to be a military alliance, and we are not looking to create an Asian NATO,” he said.

  He welcomed the continued emphasis on security in the joint statement, calling it a “welcome development”. Kantha added: “The focus on security has been distilled into substantive issues that do not detract from India’s fundamental position against alliance arrangements. Remember, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has always been its name.”

  Kantha also praised the statement’s emphasis on resilience in supply chains, economic security, maritime security, and technological security, adding that the shift from efficiency to resilience aligns closely with India’s goals. “There were concerns that the Quad was becoming somewhat amorphous in its agenda. However, the joint statement has reaffirmed its focus after careful deliberation,” he said.

  In conclusion, experts identified Trump’s transactional diplomacy as a major challenge for India. 

  Saran warned against over-reliance on the US, highlighting that tactical adjustments between Washington and Beijing could leave India vulnerable. Pant, however, emphasised India’s demonstrated ability to stand up to China independently, which strengthens its leverage within the Quad. 

  The first Quad meeting under Trump’s second term reaffirmed its relevance, with experts agreeing that India must balance engagement while safeguarding autonomy to shape the Quad into a stabilising force in the Indo-Pacific.   

The Odyssey 

Quad’s formation and evolution

 

2004: Australia, India, Japan, and the US establish the Quad to coordinate relief efforts after the Indian Ocean tsunami

2007: The Quad evolves from a humanitarian partnership into a strategic dialogue

2008: Australia withdraws from the Quad due to concerns about antagonising China

2017: The Quad is revived in 2017, and its scope is subsequently broadened to include new policy areas

2021–2024: Annual Quad Leaders’ Summits provide 

high-level guidance through joint statements on shared goals and principles   Source: ORF