Pahalgam terrorist attack: 'Non-kinetic' arrows in quiver to counter Pak

Experts suggest diplomatic manoeuvres to put Pakistan back in FATF 'grey list', regulate information on hydrological data to the lower riparian and convincing friends like Saudi, UAE to block aid

After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, India’s diplomatic response to Pakistan has focused on ‘non-kinetic’ measures: suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), curtailing water flow through the Baglihar dam on the  Chenab river, banning imports, and shutting ports for Pakistan-owned ships.

  India is also set to red-flag the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) fresh $1.3 billion loan tranche for Pakistan, expected to be taken up by its board at its meeting in Washington on May 9. New Delhi plans to sensitise other global entities and lenders — like the World Bank — on their engagements with Islamabad. India would try to convince the 39-member Financial Action Task Force (FATF) — the global money laundering and terror financing watchdog — to put Pakistan back into its ‘grey list’. While India is a member of FATF, Pakistan is not.

  Experts and former diplomats believe India has some more ‘non-kinetic’ or ‘non-combat’ measures in its quiver that it could unleash in the coming days. These include, impressing upon some of its friends in West Asia like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to stop their financial aid to Islamabad. The steps already taken, and those that New Delhi contemplates, could hurt all sectors of Pakistan’s economy, including its agriculture.

  Interestingly, the parliamentary standing committee on defence had picked “preparedness of the Armed Forces in hybrid warfare, including cyber, kinetic, and non-kinetic warfare and anti-drone capabilities” as one of the 17 subjects that it was studying during its 2024-25 tenure. In a report tabled in March, the panel noted the “paradigm shift in the technology used in fighting a war” with the use of drones, space, cyberspace, kinetic, and non-kinetic measures.

  Suspending IWT

  India putting the IWT — signed in 1960 — in abeyance does not mean immediate cessation of water supplies to Pakistan. But, withholding of critical water and flood-related information could have a cascading impact on its water management. Experts say, when water levels go down in the rivers that pass through India and flow into Pakistan during lean months, even if India were to tweak the movement marginally, it could hit Pakistan’s agricultural plans.

  Just like India, paddy, cotton, and maize are the main kharif crops in Pakistan. 

With sowing about to start, Pakistan’s cotton exports may come under a cloud if water availability is scarce.

  In foodgrains, Pakistan has a significant presence in rice markets. With domestic production of around 10-11 million tonnes, Pakistan exports around 3-4 million tonnes of rice. Last November onwards, Pakistan exported around 2.55 million tonnes of

rice.  Currently, according to rice traders, Pakistan warehouses hold stocks of around 3.8 million tonnes. Of the total rice exports from Pakistan, basmati accounts for about 0.8-1.0 million tonnes. It competes directly with India. Both nations have several long-standing disputes on the basmati brand and its origin. “When India banned exports of non-basmati rice a few years back, Pakistan exports had surged to almost 6 million tonnes, but with India back in the game, there could be a challenge,” says a leading trader, adding that rice is a water-intensive crop and though most of the production on both sides of the border is done through pump irrigation—not through canals or reservoirs—the impact on yields, if water levels go down, remains unclear.

  “Pakistan is a big consumer of animal feed and almost 40-45 per cent of its agriculture GDP comes from the livestock sector. If production of paddy and maize suffers, then it could directly impact the animal feed supplies in that country and increase its imports,” said S Chandrasekaran, a leading trade policy analyst and author of the book “Basmati Rice: The Natural History Geographical Indication”.

  According to some trade estimates from India, wheat stocks in Pakistan are estimated to be around 2.1 million, mostly with private traders. Its annual wheat production in the 2025-26 season may drop by almost 4 million tonnes this year to around 27 million tonnes. Its state-run grains management agency, Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO), according to several reports, is on the verge of being wound up.

  As for corn, the third major cereal grown in Pakistan, sources say that the country could have a surplus of around 1 million tonnes for exports, which is their usual level, but that too would depend on the final harvest.

  Former diplomat Ajay Bisaria, who was India’s last High Commissioner to Pakistan (2017-2020), told Business Standard that suspending the IWT is a serious signal from India. “I would argue that this step definitely adds to the deterrence. People in Pakistan will be asking themselves and their Army whether this is a price worth paying. While suspending the Treaty is a reversible measure, it definitely adds to our leverage,” Bisaria said.

  According to Sharat Sabharwal, India’s envoy to Islamabad from 2009 to 2013, the IWT is “a very precious treaty for Pakistan” since it is a lower riparian state and a water-stressed country. He says Pakistan’s strategic planners and their public have had apprehensions for a long time that India may someday start diverting their share of water for its own use. India’s IWT move has created uncertainty and anxiety in Pakistan about water availability. India will need to build massive infrastructure to withhold Pakistan’s share of water, but “what we could do is stop giving hydrological data”, and to an extent, influence seasonal flows, he says.

  “It is not that you always need big reservoirs on the Indian side to stop the flow of water to Pakistan. Even a slight tampering with the timings or denying timely information could hit the yields. But, by walking out from the pact, India could save some water which in turn could help in solving the long-standing water disputes between Punjab and Haryana,” says Ajay Vir Jakhar, chairman, Bharat Krishak Samaj.

  One of the moves, Sabharwal says, could be for India to try to again get the FATF to put Pakistan on its ‘grey list’, which will hit their ability to raise financing at the international level, as it had done when Pakistan was on the watch list from 2018 to 2022. As for the IMF loan, the former diplomat says Pakistan has entered into several pacts with the financial institution, but never completed the programme that was prescribed. “Also, if you see the Pakistani press, there have been reports that Pakistan is having difficulties in meeting those conditions. So, if some kind of pressure was to be built, you know, that could become the ground of some action,” he adds.

  Pakistan receives major funding and support for its military from China, which is unlikely to stop, he says. But India, Sabharwal says, should persuade its friends in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia, which extends Islamabad oil credit facility, and the UAE, to stop their financial support.