RBI may infuse up to Rs 4 trillion to shield economy from global risks

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By Subhadip Sircar and Bhaskar Dutta

 

The Reserve Bank of India is set to extend its record cash infusions into the banking system as it shields the economy from mounting global headwinds, analysts say.

 

The authority is expected to inject as much as Rs 4 trillion ($47 billion) through bond purchases and foreign-exchange swaps in the current fiscal year, according to IDFC FIRST Bank. SBM India estimates that up to Rs 2 trillion could be injected in the first half, adding to an unprecedented $80 billion already pumped in since January.  

 

A boost in liquidity is vital to ensure that interest-rate cuts are effectively transmitted, particularly amid rising risks such as the impact of the new US tariff regime on Indian exports. The RBI is expected to cut rates again on April 9, building on its first reduction in five years in February, with bulls predicting the easing will push benchmark yields to new three-year lows.

 

“In the past rate-cutting cycles, liquidity was in surplus of at least Rs 2 trillion for transmission to take place,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC FIRST Bank.  

 

At the same time, the RBI may want to keep the banking system in surplus as upcoming net maturities of about $35 billion in the forwards market in April-June could once again lead to a cash deficit. The central bank needs to return the dollars if it chooses to not roll over the swaps at maturity.

 

“RBI’s short forwards position is expected to continue the need for rollovers or outright FX swaps or additional open-market purchases to keep liquidity in surplus,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.  

 

The central bank surprised markets last week by announcing another Rs 80,000 crore of purchases for April, providing further tailwinds to bonds. The 10-year yield fell to 6.46 per cent on Friday, the lowest since Jan. 2022. Nomura Holdings Inc. predicts a further drop to 6.25 per cent in the coming months.

 

The liquidity push has helped tip the banking sysetm into surplus from a deficit of Rs 3.3 trillion in January. The cash squeeze — the worst in over a decade — was partly due to the central bank’s dollar sales. 

 

The fresh purchases “show that the focus of the RBI’s liquidity management is to make system surplus on a consistent basis,” IDFC FIRST’s Sen Gupta said.