 "Donald Trump presidency 2.0: Which immigrants are at risk of deportation?")
In a few hours, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in Washington DC. His inauguration marks the beginning of a presidency that has sparked global attention, particularly due to his strong stance on immigration. Trump has pledged to act on his campaign promises from day one, including large-scale deportations and changes to birthright citizenship.
Immigration: Sweeping deportation plans
Trump has described his immigration agenda as the most extensive deportation effort in US history. His focus will be on individuals living in the country without legal status. Data from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates that 14 million people currently lack permanent legal status in the United States. This includes a mix of those with no authorisation at all and those with temporary permissions set to expire. 18,000 undocumented Indians are among the undocumented.
The population targeted includes:
11 million people without legal authorisation or documentation.
3 million with temporary permissions, such as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), Temporary Protected Status (TPS), or humanitarian parole.
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Trump’s immediate priority will be the deportation of noncitizens with criminal convictions or pending charges. According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), there are approximately:
655,000 noncitizens with criminal records or charges.
1.4 million people under final deportation orders issued by immigration judges.
Trump has indicated that this group will be the first to face removal. However, many of these charges are for minor offences, such as traffic violations.
Challenges to large-scale deportation
While the Trump administration has declared these deportations a priority, logistical and practical challenges abound. Currently, the US immigration system is stretched thin:
< ICE detention facilities are nearing capacity, holding 39,000 detainees as of December.
< There are 6.3 million pending or paused removal cases awaiting adjudication.
Many undocumented immigrants have lived in the United States for over a decade, building families and community ties. Pew Research Centre data reveals that more than half of the undocumented population has been in the US for ten years or longer.
The question of birthright citizenship
Trump has also promised to end birthright citizenship, which currently grants US citizenship to anyone born on American soil. This constitutional right, protected under the 14th Amendment, has been a significant pathway for children of undocumented immigrants. Legal experts say that such a move would face substantial constitutional and judicial hurdles.
While Mexican nationals remain the largest group among those living without authorisation, their share has declined since the 1990s. Other groups, including Central Americans, have increased due to economic and humanitarian crises. Recent data highlights the countries of origin for many undocumented immigrants:
Mexico: 4 million
India: 725,000
El Salvador: 675,000
China: 375,000
Guatemala: 525,000
Honduras: 525,000
The Biden administration’s humanitarian policies allowed migrants from Afghanistan, Ukraine, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to enter under temporary protection. Trump has criticised these programmes, calling them illegal, despite their compliance with existing laws, according to US Department of Homeland Security, US Customs and Border Protection and Migration Policy Institute.
Legal pathways and temporary permissions
Not all of the 14 million people targeted by Trump’s policies are without authorisation. Around 40% of this group currently hold some form of temporary permission, according to FWD.us, an advocacy organisation founded in 2013 by technology industry leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg
DACA: Protects 540,000 individuals brought to the US as children.
TPS: Covers 1.1 million people from crisis-hit countries.
Asylum seekers: 2.6 million are waiting for decisions on their cases.
Humanitarian parole: Includes groups such as 240,000 Ukrainians and 77,000 Afghans.
The Biden administration also introduced the CBP One app, which allows migrants to schedule appointments to cross the US border legally. Trump has criticised these pathways, stating his administration will prioritise stricter border controls.
Can these promises be fulfilled?
Deporting millions of undocumented individuals would require significant resources and time. Many of those targeted have established deep ties in their communities, making enforcement more complicated. Trump’s focus on individuals with criminal records, combined with the scale of undocumented populations, presents a complex challenge for his administration.