Winter in India may be less severe this year due to El Nino, says IMD

India's avg max and min temperatures in November third highest since 1901

Most parts of India are likely to experience a less severe winter this year as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures during the December-February period due to the continuing impact of El Nino and other local factors.

El Nino, the natural climate phenomenon of warm temperature, is normally declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise to at least 0.5 degree Celsius above the long-term average. El Nino events occur irregularly at two to seven-year intervals.

Less severe winters could be helpful for some but the warmer-than-usual winter months can have an impact on the standing rabi crops, particularly wheat.

This is all the more crucial as soil moisture in several parts of the country is low due to insufficient rainfall and reservoir levels are also weak.

The Met Department, in its forecast for the December-February period, said that during the upcoming winter season, the above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country.

The maximum temperatures are also expected to be above normal during this period in most parts of the country, except in some areas of central and northwest India where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.

The Met Department said that occurrences of cold waves over north, northwest, central, east and north-east India during the December to February period will also be below normal.

“The above normal maximum and minimum temperature over the country as a whole in December 2023 to February 2024 is mainly due to El Nino when temperatures tend to be higher, plus regional factors like frequent western disturbances that will cause cloudiness and low minimum temperatures,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a virtual press conference.

For the month of December alone, the IMD forecast said that rainfall across the country as a whole will be normal. The December rainfall across the country is normally around 15.9 millimeters.

But, spatially, in December above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the northwest, adjoining areas of central and east India and some areas of extreme south peninsular India, and below-normal rainfall is likely over many parts of northeast India, north peninsular India and adjoining areas of central India.

For December alone, the monthly minimum temperature is most likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, while maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal, except over some areas of central India and north India where normal maximum temperatures are likely.

Meanwhile, the IMD said that the average maximum and minimum temperatures across India in November 2023 have been the third highest since 1901, while the average mean temperature had been the highest during the same period.

On El Nino, the IMD reiterated its earlier forecast that it might enter a ‘neutral’ phase by the time the next monsoon season commences over India, while the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which greatly benefitted Indian monsoon, could weaken.

Cyclone

The low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression on Friday and is likely to become a cyclonic storm that will cross the coast between Machilipatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Chennai around December 4 evening, the IMD said.

At 5.30 am on Friday, the system lay centered over the sea about 800 km away from Chennai, 970 km from Machilipatnam, 990 km from Bapatla in Andhra Pradesh and 790 km away from Puducherry. It is likely to continue to move towards the west and northwest, intensify into a deep depression by December 2, and further into a cyclonic storm around December 3, the IMD said.