Climate change, extreme weather key challenges: DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra

Says 'weather management's technologies could evolve in next 50 years

As India’s premier weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD), celebrates its 150th anniversary on January 15, its Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra lays down the organisation’s future growth trajectory in an interview with Sanjeeb Mukherjee in New Delhi. Edited excerpts:

 

What do you envision for the IMD in the next 100 to 150 years? Where do you see the organisation heading in the future? 

It’s essential to reflect on the past to envision the future. IMD’s inception was driven by the need to respond to tropical cyclones, floods, and droughts. The organisation was established after two massive cyclones devastated the east coast of India in 1864. In 1865, the first port warnings were issued based on simple observations taken at 9:30 am from five locations along the coasts of Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. At that time, there were no forecasting systems, models, satellites, or radar — just these five observations. By 4 pm, a statement was prepared and communicated to port masters in Kolkata, the government, and the press. This marked the beginning of weather forecasting.

 

In 1875, the department was officially established, and by 1886, the first monsoon forecast was issued. This forecast relied on the relationship between Himalayan snow cover and monsoon rainfall, revealing an inverse correlation. From the outset, both cyclone and monsoon forecasting were based on scientific principles and innovation.

 

Today, we have made tremendous progress. For cyclone forecasts, we can predict landfall within 23 kms and issue forecasts up to five days in advance, detailing the storm’s track, wind intensity, storm surge, and expected rainfall. The impact of these forecasts is communicated to sectors, such as agriculture, infrastructure, and real estate, aiding in disaster preparedness and response.

 

Looking back at this 150-year journey, we can imagine what lies ahead. If we continue on our current trajectory with increased investment in science and technology, we may one day achieve forecasts with nearly zero errors, extending our predictive capabilities from five to 10 or even 15 days. We could see forecasts tailored to individual households, making accurate weather information accessible to everyone.

 

In the next 50 years, weather management technologies could emerge, allowing for the management of rainfall, fog, and other phenomena. By 2047, as we celebrate a century of Independence, there may be a greater emphasis on weather management strategies, though this will involve navigating legal and ethical considerations, particularly in the context of climate change.

 

Since the onset of the industrial era in 1850, we have seen significant climate impacts, with the target for global temperature rise initially set at 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 now seemingly achievable within a few years. The acceleration of climate change, driven by human activity, presents challenges that will necessitate advancements in weather forecasting and modeling systems.

 

Artificial intelligence is beginning to play a role in these advancements, and its applications will only strengthen as data quality and volume increase. Enhanced data collection will occur across both spatial and temporal scales, allowing us to refine our weather forecasting capabilities in conjunction with physical models.

 

Considering the impact of climate change, how significant is the challenge in forecasting adverse weather events? 

Climate change significantly threatens the predictability of extreme weather conditions. For instance, heavy rainfall can be highly localised; some areas of a city may experience intense downpours while others receive none. This unpredictability in localised thunderstorms highlights the need for accelerated improvements in our observational, modeling, and communication systems to effectively address the challenges posed by rapid climate change.

 

While public awareness of climate change is increasing and various measures are being implemented to mitigate its adverse effects, the long-lived nature of greenhouse gases means that the impacts of emissions already released will persist for the next century.

 

Although we discuss long-term visions, a more realistic timeframe for actionable planning is 10 to 25 years. The Ministry of Earth Sciences and IMD are working on a Vision 2047, aiming to enhance forecasting accuracy continuously. By that time, we hope to achieve significant improvements in predictive capabilities at all levels, potentially offering reasonable forecast accuracy for localised weather events. However, the ongoing challenge of climate change remains a critical concern that IMD must address.

 

What other challenges do you foresee for IMD in the coming years? 

One major challenge is climate change, but extreme weather events also present significant uncertainties. For instance, rising temperatures are causing glaciers to melt, a trend that is expected to continue. As climate impacts intensify, so too will the effects of extreme weather.

 

Additionally, sea surface temperatures are on the rise, leading to thermal expansion of water and an increase in sea levels. This gradual change may not be noticeable on a daily basis, but it can result in significant events, such as storm surges or tidal waves during extreme weather conditions.

 

Moreover, rising temperatures are contributing to increased relative humidity in the atmosphere. This heightened humidity enhances the atmosphere’s water-holding capacity, meaning when it does rain, it is likely to be more intense. Consequently, we are witnessing changes in the water cycle that will further complicate weather patterns.

 

We are already observing shifts in rainfall patterns, with increased rainfall activity occurring in desert regions, such as western Rajasthan, which typically receives less than 4 inches during the monsoon. In contrast, eastern states are experiencing reduced rainfall.

 

This highlights the need to address not only the impacts of climate change but also the spatial and temporal variations in extreme weather events. Previously, rainfall was more evenly distributed among light, moderate, and heavy categories; now, we see an increase in heavy rainfall events at the expense of light and moderate ones. This imbalance poses a significant challenge, especially if we do not implement measures to mitigate climate change.

 

Furthermore, urbanisation continues to rise, leading to new challenges such as urban meteorological hazards. As cities grow, we must consider these factors in our planning and response strategies.

 

We need to account for the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly on smaller spatial and temporal scales, such as thunderstorms.

 

There seems to be some confusion regarding IMD’s approach to drought prediction.  Many people say IMD no longer uses the term ‘drought’ and instead refers to it as ‘deficient monsoon’. Was this a conscious decision to avoid predicting droughts?  

In the context of drought assessment, there are several factors to consider. For instance, in an area that is already facing water scarcity, insufficient reservoir levels can adversely affect irrigation, potentially leading to agricultural drought.

 

Additionally, there is the concept of socio-economic drought, where the ability of individuals to cope with drought conditions varies significantly. Some people may have the financial resources to manage the impact of drought, while others may not, highlighting the role of socio-economic conditions in determining drought effects.

 

However, IMD’s primary focus is on providing rainfall data and forecasts. Other aspects, such as agricultural and hydrological assessments, fall under the purview of experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Water Resources, respectively. IMD cannot account for these broader socio-economic and agricultural factors in its forecasts.

 

What kind of events are you planning for this 150 years? 

The 150th year of IMD commenced on January 15 in 2024 and will conclude on January 15, 2025. To mark this milestone, we initiated various programmes, including the launch of the Har Ghar Mosam initiative, which aims to ensure that every household has access to weather information. This was introduced in 2023.

 

As part of this initiative, we developed the Mosam Gram application, accessible through our Mosam portal or the IMD website. Users can obtain forecasts by simply entering their block name or postal index number. This decision support system integrates information from various sources, such as satellite data and ground observations.

 

To reach those without smartphones, we implemented the Commodore Protocol, which sends weather information directly to all mobile users, regardless of device type. This collaboration with NASA and the SML authority allows us to deliver updates in local languages via SMS alerts, free of charge, with the government covering the costs through all service providers.

 

Additionally, we send forecasts to local panchayati raj officials and volunteers, ensuring that information is disseminated at the grassroots level, particularly to women and marginalised groups.

 

In terms of climate services, we have started preparing statewide climate summaries and impact assessments.