India-Canada standoff: Anxiety builds among students, travel companies

Several education consultancy agencies said they are getting panic calls from students and parents, who have already registered themselves

The ongoing diplomatic tug-of-war between India and Canada is already leaving its mark on the education sector and the travel industry. Students, travel industry veterans, and players in the education sector are expressing their concerns about the issue.

Several education consultancy agencies have reported receiving panic calls from students and parents who have already registered for the Fall season intake (September) and winter intake (January) for higher education at various Canadian universities.

According to data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, of a total of 551,405 foreign students in Canada in 2022, approximately 41 per cent, or 226,450, were from India. The concerns among Indian students and other visa applicants have surged following India’s suspension of visa services for Canadian nationals until further notice.

“We have already begun receiving panic calls from parents and students, especially after India suspended visa services for Canadian nationals. The majority of students for the Fall intake have already departed, those who have obtained visas and booked tickets are feeling the pressure. Similarly, those planning to enrol in the 2024 winter and summer (May) intakes are also expressing concerns,” said Rajmohan Sathyarajan, managing director of Fortune Study Abroad, a student facilitation agency based in Kerala. Of the total students admitted to Canada in 2022, around 18-20 per cent were from Kerala.

Based on other industry data, of a total of 807,260 international students in Canada in 2022, Indians contributed the lion’s share of 40 per cent or 319,000. In places like Ontario, which is Canada’s most populous province, Indian students’ contribution to the education system surpasses that of the government and is twice that of Canadian students, according to a study by Higher Education Strategy Associates, a Toronto-based firm.

Based on rough industry calculations, revenue from student travellers alone translated into Rs 1,500-2,000 crore for the Indian aviation sector. As tensions between the two countries escalate, it will impact planned visits to both nations, including flight, hotel, and other travel-related bookings.

“This situation is going to affect tourism. Many bookings have already been made, and numerous passports are currently in embassies. Expect a surge in cancellations because people are becoming increasingly anxious due to the uncertainty of the situation. Many students reside in Canada, and as a result, parents are growing increasingly concerned,” warned Jyoti Mayal, a board member at the Federation of Associations in Tourism & Hospitality.

Moreover, there is still ambiguity among travellers regarding whether travel to either country will be suspended.

Rajiv Mehra, president of the Indian Association for Tour Operators, said, “There is no clarity regarding the potential suspension of travel, especially for those who already possess visas. We await further clarification. The suspension of visas for those planning to travel to India could adversely affect the free trade agreement, as Canada is a major source market for us (India).”

Industry experts also indicate that Canada may find it challenging to simply shut its doors to Indian students and travellers, as they constitute a significant portion of their revenue.

Ajesh Raj, co-founder of Edumpus, a social media platform and education consultancy provider for international students, noted, “This will have a ripple effect on the aviation industry, banks that receive substantial amounts through fee transfers, education consultancies, and other coaching centres. For them, it is also not easy to do without Indian students, as they contribute a significant share of the country’s revenue.”

India’s domestic tourism may also be impacted.

According to India Tourism Statistics 2022, Canada ranked fourth in 2021 among the top countries generating tourists for India. The highest percentage share of foreign tourist arrivals in India was 28.45 per cent for the US, followed by Bangladesh (15.75 per cent), the UK (10.75 per cent), Canada (5.27 per cent), and Nepal (3.44 per cent). In contrast, outbound travellers from India accounted for approximately 3 per cent of Canada’s tourist arrivals.