India likely to experience 'above-normal' rainfall in July, says IMD

A strong kharif output particularly that of pulses and oilseeds is likely to help the government in its fight against inflation

After an uneven run in June, the southwest monsoon is expected to become vigorous in July with all-India average rain across the country predicted at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), which is “above normal”, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday.

The LPA for the country in July is 28.04 cm and precipitation is expected to be more than that.

This will be a boost to kharif sowing, which till last week was 30 per cent more than the area covered during the same period in 2023.

Strong kharif output, particularly of pulses and oilseeds, is likely to help the government in its fight against inflation.

July and August are the two most important months in the four-month southwest monsoon, which begins in June and contribute more than 60 per cent of the total. 

“Above-normal rain in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir along with the Godavari and Mahanadi delta will make them more prone to riverine floods but it is difficult to predict it now,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a virtual press conference on Monday.

He said during July, normal to above-normal rain was most likely over most parts of the country except many regions of northeast India and some bits of northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall is likely.

Mohapatra said El Nino had ended and “neutral” conditions were prevailing over the Pacific Ocean, which will gradually move towards La Nina.

The Met said maximum temperatures in July were likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of northwest India and south peninsular India, except the west coast.

Minimum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over many parts of the country except some regions of northwest and the adjoining areas of central India, and some pockets of southeastern peninsular India, it said.

Mohapatra said another factor that made him hopeful about rain in July was that the data showed that in 20 of the 25 years when June rain was below normal (less than 92 per cent of the LPA), in July it was normal (94-106 percent of the LPA) or above normal.

And, in 17 of the 25 years when June rain was below normal, seasonal rain was normal or above normal.

The southwest monsoon in June, after making a steady start, took a prolonged break, which lowered the cumulative shortfall, forcing the Met to scale down its earlier projection of “normal” rain in June to “below normal” mid-season.

The Met said India recorded an 11 per cent deficit in June this year, which is the highest in the last five years.

According to the IMD data, the country received 147.2 mm against a normal of 165.3 mm for the month, the seventh-lowest since 2001.

Delhi rains last week not cloudburst, met to strengthen the city’s radar network

The torrential rain that brought Delhi to its knees last week was not a result of a cloudburst, the IMD has clarified. This is because the city's primary weather station in Safdarjung, recorded 91 mm of rainfall between 5 am and 6 am on June 28, while the Lodhi Road weather station logged 64 mm from 5 am to 6 am and 89 mm from 6 am to 7 am.

"These do not warrant to be declared as cloudbursts, but it was very close to a cloudburst," IMD DG Mohapatra said.

He said the met department is adding three more radars to its already existing network of three and further fine-tuning the Advanced Weather Systems (AWS) to improve its forecasting of extreme heavy rains.

Rain check 

> Cumulative all India average rainfall in July expected to be above normal at more than 106% of long period average

> India's LPA for July is 28.04 cm

> La Niña, considered favourable for monsoon rainfall, likely to prevail in Aug-Sep