India on course to become 5th-largest market for travel and tourism

In outbound travel, India will be behind only the US, China, Germany and the UK but ahead of Italy, South Korea, Australia, Canada and France, to name only a few

India is poised to become the next big travel market in the world, projected to hit the fifth rank in outbound travel with spends of $89 billion in 2027 as compared with the current 10th position with $38 billion in 2019.

The projections are in a report by Bernstein that tries to identify the potential big markets for travel.

In terms of tourist inflows, India is projected to become the third largest domestic market by 2027 with spends of $174 billion, up from the $127 billion spent in 2019 when it was in fifth place.

This places India behind only the USA and China, and well ahead of Brazil, Italy, Australia, Japan, Germany, France and Mexico.

In outbound travel, India will be behind only the US, China, Ger­many and the UK, but ahead of Ita­ly, South Korea, Australia, Can­ada and France, to name a few.

One sobering estimate, though, is that India’s inbound travel in the same period, while growing at an impressive 76 per cent since 2019 to reach $60 billion in 2027, will still not be in the top 10 markets.

The reasons, according to Bernstein, is that India is the most populous country in the world; 80 per cent of Indians are below 50 years; and the increasing wealth of one third of the population as it moves to middle and high incomes by the middle of this century.

Much like the US, India has a staggering array of travel experiences — from deserts, forests, and mountains to beaches, cities, and heritage.

The big growth in outbound travel has led to some dramatic changes in the share of spends that travellers are making on different segments. Of the total travel share, outbound travel has gone up from 17 per cent in 2019 to 32 per cent in 2022. Both the domestic tourism travel share of spends fell from 67 per cent to 58 per cent and inbound fell from 16 per cent to 

9 per cent.

Outbound travellers are spending more than before. In local currency, India’s outbound spend grew by a compound annual growth rate of 17 per cent, which is higher than China’s 15.9 per cent.   

  

The bulk of outbound travellers, about 75 per cent, were leisure travellers or those who going to meet family and friends abroad.

Their travel behaviour in many ways is very different from people from other countries. For instance, the Bernstein report says the bulk of the trips (around 65 per cent) are for one to two weeks and over 20 per cent of them are for more than a month.

Moreover, most of the outbound travel is within Asia, either West Asia or Southeast Asia. This accounts for 66 per cent of travel.

In contrast, North America accounts for only 9.6 per cent and Western Europe for 8.5 per cent.

In domestic tourism, travel is concentrated in just five states that account for 65 per cent of the footfall. These include Tamil Nadu at the top, followed by Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra.