India's 2025 emission rate to fall but global jump raises warming alarm

India's projected CO₂ emissions growth of 1% (38.9 GtCO₂/year) is higher than the global average and China's 0.4%, but lower than the US rate of 1.9%

Delhi’s putrid air belies the invisible progress that India is making on the climate front, perhaps indicating that more needs to be done. 

India, the world’s third biggest polluter on an absolute basis, slashed growth rate in fossil fuel emissions by 65 per cent in 2025 compared to a year earlier. 

This was aided partly by a surge in renewable power capacity growth, amid lower demand for electricity because of early monsoon, according to global climate forecasters at the COP 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. 

But a lower rate of emission growth still falls well short of meeting global warming goals. 

Emissions from burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas in India increased by 1.4 per cent in 2025 to 3.24 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) from the previous year. This compares to a 4 per cent growth in 2024, according to the Global Carbon Budget (GCB), a leading climate forecaster. 

“We project an increase in (emissions from) India of 1.4 per cent,” said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist associated with the emissions study, at a briefing on Thursday at the COP 30 event in Belem. 

“That contrasts with a decadal increase of 6 per cent per year, so that’s a good news story.’’ (Every 1 kg carbon (C) = 3.664 kg carbon dioxide (CO2). 

India’s projected growth in CO2 emissions is still higher than the global average growth this year at 1 per cent at 38.9 GtCo2/yr and China’s 0.4 per cent, but lower than the US’ 1.9 per cent. Fossil fuel emissions accounted for 88 per cent of global CO2 emissions in 2015-24 and the remaining 12 per cent was from land use changes. 

The unabated increase in emissions coupled with tepid climate pledges by nations is crimping efforts to cap global warming, warned climate experts at COP 30. 

Most of the major polluters, barring India, have submitted climate pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) running until 2035. 

“The 2035 (NDC) targets that countries have submitted do not change the needle for temperature increase,” said Niklas Hohne, a climate expert involved in Climate Action Tracker’s (CATs) latest warming projections report, released on Thursday at Belem. 

He added, “Progress has stalled in the last four years, and in 2035, we are emitting more than double the emissions than we should if we are serious about the 1.5°C goal, Hohne.” 

CAT expects global warming targets under the “2030 and 2035 NDC targets scenario”, to stay at 2.6°C, well over the 1.5°C levels stipulated under the Paris Agreement. 

But for greater ambitions to curb emissions in the form of expensive alternative fuels like green hydrogen and green ammonia, developed nations must provide finance and technology to developing countries like India, said Saurabh Kumar, vice president-India, Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet. It is an agency working on power grid improvement projects. 

“To ensure a fair contribution to the global climate crisis, India’s emissions would need to stay below the emissions projected under current policies, and with international support, it could expedite faster reductions,’’ said the CAT report. 

A roadmap for provision of climate finance by developed nations under the Paris agreement, a legally binding international climate treaty agreed by countries at COP 21 a decade ago, is still in the consultation phase, said Jacob Werksman, the European Union's top climate negotiator at a briefing in Belem on Wednesday. 

Historical emissions 

A report released at COP 30 by the London School of Economics on mobilising $1.3 trillion in climate finance for developing nations places the financing burden on national governments and the private sector. It shrinks the role and responsibility of developed nations, responsible for historical emissions. 

“The US and European Union (EU) have the highest accumulated fossil CO2 emissions since 1850, but China is a close third,” said GCB.

The US has cumulative emissions since 1850 at close to 450 GtCO2, with the EU and China at 300 GtCO2 each. By comparison, India’s cumulative emissions total is less than 70GtCO2. 

Moreover, India's per capita emissions at 2.2 tonnes per person are well below America's 14.2, China's 8.7 and Russia's 12.3 tonnes per person in 2024, according to GCB data. 

Sitch, a professor in physical geography at the University of Exeter, UKyes, attributed the effect of climate to India’s lower emission growth. 

Weather has played an important role across the world in climate actions of nations. Emissions from the US increased because after two warm winters, 2025 turned typically cold, prompting the use of more coal for heating. Relatively cleaner gas was diverted for exports of LNG; weather conditions led to declining clean power output in Europe, Sitch said.

 

“We had an early onset of monsoon (in India), you had a monsoon during the warmest time of the year, providing some natural cooling,” Sitch said. “So, with the early onset of monsoon, you have less need for cooling systems and energy for cooling.”

 

“Also India has surpassed its 2030 NDC target of 50 per cent non-fossil capacity ahead of schedule, driven by record solar and wind investments,” CAT said in the note. 

“As a developing country, we will use more energy,” Kumar said. He expects emissions to peak somewhere between 2045 and 2050. “For the next 15-20 years, you will see a rise in emissions but in a responsible way.”