Mercury rising: Can India tackle the heat and protect lives, livelihoods?

On Friday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) added a new dreadful dark red stripe to represent 2024 as the hottest year in recorded weather history, which started with a cool blue tone. In a social media post, WMO said: “No words, no numbers—just a powerful visual capturing our planet’s warming. The latest update adds a new dark red stripe for 2024—a colour first introduced last year when 2023 shattered all previous records.”

 

WMO has confirmed that 2024 is the warmest year on record, based on six international datasets. The past 10 years have all been in the top 10, in an extraordinary streak of record-breaking temperatures. This is the first calendar year when the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. “Today’s assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proves yet again – global heating is a cold, hard fact,” UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres said.

 

Back home, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said 2024 was the warmest on record in India since 1901, with the average minimum temperature settling 0.90 degrees Celsius above the long-period average.

 

The annual mean temperature in 2024 was 25.75 degrees Celsius, 0.65 degrees above the long-period average, which too was the highest since 1901. The average maximum temperature stood at 31.25 degrees Celsius, 0.20 degrees above normal, which was fourth highest since 1901. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said: “Long-term data shows most parts of the country are witnessing a rising trend in minimum temperatures, particularly in post-monsoon and winter seasons.”

 

Lives and livelihoods

 

Intense heat leads to extreme weather events that impact all economic sectors across social strata. The worst hit however are economically poor nations, island countries, sea-facing cities, and those who are directly dependent on weather gods: Farmers and fishermen, among others.

 

Recent reports citing government officials project India’s rice and wheat output to dip by 6 to 10 per cent due to climate change. A report by Uncharted Waters, a not-for-profit organisation that has compiled 30 years of data, says a cold winter followed by a hot spring can depress wheat yields by 20 per cent in important producing states. This is a far greater reduction than in consistently hotter or colder years. The paper concludes this might translate into a 5 to 10 per cent reduction in overall wheat production.

 

The second annual survey on the ‘State of Marginal Farmers of India 2024’ by the Development Intelligence Unit (DIU), a collaborative enterprise of Sambodhi Research and Transform Rural India Foundation (TRIF) found that more than 50 per cent of marginal farmers reported losing at least half of their standing crop due to extreme weather conditions. The study demonstrated that 50 per cent of paddy farmers and more than 40 per cent of wheat farmers consistently lost more than half of their crops over the past five years. For all other crops, 45-65 per cent of farmers reported losing more than 50 per cent of their crops.

 

As the mercury rises, the chances of spoilage of agricultural produce also increases. Low levels of proper cold storage and chilling facilities make fruits and vegetables vulnerable to damage from heat. Milk supplies go down faster than expected due to hot weather. As fresh liquid milk supplies go down abnormally, the reliance on stored skimmed milk powder (SMP) goes up.

 

Production of commercial fish species such as Hilsa and Bombay Duck will go down, says the United Nations Inter­governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and labour capacity in agriculture will drop. The IPCC report said climate change will also bring new quality challenges in freshwater systems, including increased dissolved organic carbon and toxic metal loads. This will have a direct bearing on freshwater and inland fishing in India.

 

The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare reported 360 heatstroke deaths in 2024, though independent surveys pegged it to be much higher. Extreme weather events like floods and droughts can also lead to diseases, water borne ones such as cholera and typhoid fever, vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, respiratory issues, mental health challenges, malnutrition, and re-emergence of diseases.

 

Cooling causes warming

 

Last year saw India’s power demand beat all past records during the summer months. According to the World Energy Outlook 2023, AC ownership in the country has tripled since 2010 to reach 24 units per 100 households. Along with space cooling, these sectors are now pushing India’s electricity demand. Thanks to the increase in residential cooling, new “high electricity demand” hours have emerged during the evening time, which was earlier only during office hours.  

 

Environment experts have repeatedly pointed out that ambient heat increases as more cooling equipment is installed. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are the main chemical gases used in coolants, are proven beyond doubt to be causing ozone layer depletion. India has a star rating programme for efficient electrical equipment and is a signatory to the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol for phase down of HFCs. But the spike in use of cooling equipment will inevitably cause more warming.

 

An iForest survey of businesses in 2021 had indicated predominant use of HFCs. While businesses showed an intention to move to natural refrigerants, none were using HC or CO2 refrigerants, while some were using NH3 and water as refrigerants.

 

Adapting to new realities

 

India has set 2070 as the target year for achieving net carbon zero status. It has an ambitious green energy target of 500 Gw by the end of this decade. As part of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the country has committed to reducing greenhouse emissions and increasing forest cover.

 

Several sectors have started redesigning policies to tackle the harsh reality of a warming planet. The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) is an umbrella policy under which socio-economic sectors have targets to become climate resilient. It has eight missions under it ranging from clean energy to sustainable habitat, water, agriculture etc.

 

For instance, multiple government programmes and crores of rupees are being spent on climate-resistant agriculture, a big focus of which is on seeds and research and development of new varieties. During the last kharif season, around 25 per cent of the total paddy acreage was under climate-resistant varieties. That number has gone up to nearly 75 per cent for wheat.

 

Other schemes and programmes addressing climate change related issues include Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojna (PMSKY), Soil Health Card, Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojna (PKVY), Agricultural Contingency Plans and National Innovations on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), and Sub-mission on Agroforestry.

 

Under clean energy deployment, India has achieved 200 Gw of installed capacity. Under energy efficiency, the country is pushing for electric mobility, energy storage, energy efficient electronics both at domestic and commercial level.

 

The lacunas are at the state level. Under the NAPCC, there are state level APCCs as well. But till 2022, only Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Himachal Pradesh had revised and updated their state action plan on climate change (SAPCC), says a sector expert.

 

Sea facing states are more proactive than others. In 2023, Kerala became the first state in India to come out with a ‘Water Budget’, tracking the availability and usage of water in 10 per cent of the state’s villages. Tamil Nadu became the first state to come out with a Climate Change Mission last September. The mission is targeted at reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the share of renewable energy and raising the use of public transport. The state has also built a district wise standard operating procedure.

 

West Bengal is drafting a fresh State Action Plan for Climate Change in collaboration with the Centre for Science and Environment and sector experts and stakeholders. A massive mangrove plantation drive was undertaken by the state forest department to create a bio-shield along the coastline and Sunderbans during the last couple of years. Odisha is learnt to be adding a ‘green target’ element to all sectoral policies and investments.

 

But there is still a long way to go. In 2023, a study by the Centre for Policy Research found the 37 Heat Action Plans (HAPs) it analysed to be “insufficient and non-transparent.” HAPs are standard operating procedures which states, cities, and municipal bodies need to tackle heat-related impacts. 

It’s hot

 

> 2024 was 1.60°C above an estimate of the pre-industrial level, making it the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C limit

> 2024 was the warmest year for sizeable parts of the ocean, particularly the North Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean

> Urban areas can be up to 5°C to 10°C warmer than surrounding areas, increasing the heatwave intensity and associated risks

> Devastating heatwaves in India are 30 times more likely due to climate change

> India’s climate action is rated “highly insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker