Population growth to fertility rate: What census 2025 might reveal

The census would set the stage for the delimitation exercise and introduction of the Women Reservation Act

India will begin the national census in 2025 and conclude it early 2026, said news reports this week. While the decennial exercise couldn’t be conducted in 2021 due to Covid-19, preliminary trends and interpolations by various organisations offer insights into what we might expect from the census.

 

Government data shows that the average annual population growth rate in the decade ended 2011 was 1.64 per cent, the lowest in independent India (barring 1951 when it was 1.25 per cent due to high mortality). Growth rate further declined to 1.06 per cent in 2023, considering the 12-year period of 2011-23, according to data from the World Bank.

 

It would be interesting to see if the new census figures tally with the United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs (UNDESA) projections that India's population equaled China's at 1.42 billion in April 2023 and then surpassed it. 

 

India’s population growth rate will be 0.9 per cent in 2025 when it will have 1.46 billion people, according to UNDESA. It estimates India’s population will start declining from 2062.  

 

According to the 2011 census, the national total fertility rate (TFR) was 2.4, dropping significantly compared to earlier census exercises. It fell to 2 in 2020, according to data from the Sample Registration System, going below the replacement level TFR of 2.1.

 

Replacement level is the rate at which a population stabilises and below that would start falling with a lag of a few years. India's TFR would reduce to 1.94 in 2025, according to UNDESA projections. It is surprising that despite TFR falling below the replacement level, India's population will shrink much later.  

 

Total Dependency Ratio (TDR), which is the proportion of children and elderly to the working population, in 2011 was 55 per cent, the lowest in independent India. It dipped to 47 per cent in 2023, according to World Bank data. So, an aging population is not something that might catch India off guard in the upcoming census. India’s TDR is predicted to start rising from 2035, thereby limiting the time needed to reap the fruits of our ‘famed’ demographic dividend.  

  The census would set the stage for  delimitation exercise and  introduction  of the Women Reservation Act.